StockPicker Backtest

Overall

Hit rate

62.8%

Avg return

1.43%

Total picks

86

Winners / Misses

54 / 32

Avg days to target

11.2

Per-agent accuracy

Hit rate and average return across every resolved pick each agent backed. "Solo" counts picks that agent backed alone.

Agent	Picks selected	Hit rate	Avg return	Solo picks
Aria	59	62.7%	2.51%	1
Blaze	25	60.0%	-3.72%	0
Nova	51	66.7%	0.76%	0
Orion	71	63.4%	1.23%	2
Quinn	0	—	—	0

Performance by pick position

Pick position	Picks	Hit rate	Avg return	Avg days to target
Pick 1	19	57.9%	-1.91%	13.5
Pick 2	19	63.2%	-1.35%	12.5
Pick 3	17	76.5%	5.22%	12.1
Pick 4	16	56.2%	2.34%	7.1
Pick 5	15	60.0%	3.93%	9.7

Probability Calibration

Compares what the agents predicted against what actually happened. Calibrated rates use isotonic regression to enforce monotonicity.

Probability bucket	Samples	Raw agent %	Empirical hit rate	Calibrated rate
50–59%	8	~54%	62 %	60 %
60–69%	64	~64%	59 %	60 %
70–79%	14	~74%	79 %	79 %

Top 5 winners / losers

Top winners

Symbol	Run Date	Entry	Actual %	Hit?
IBM	2026-05-24	253.84	17.32%	HIT
CSCO	2026-05-12	98.72	17.03%	HIT
ORCL	2026-05-12	193.84	16.48%	HIT
ORCL	2026-05-11	195.95	15.22%	HIT
PANW	2026-05-10	207.88	14.59%	HIT

Top losers

Symbol	Run Date	Entry	Actual %	Hit?
NVDA	2026-05-17	225.32	-100.00%	MISS
UNH	2026-05-17	393.85	-100.00%	MISS
VRT	2026-05-13	367.13	-17.50%	MISS
GOOGL	2026-05-11	400.71	-11.06%	MISS
GOOGL	2026-05-11	400.71	-11.06%	MISS

All Picks

Rank	Symbol	Company	Index	Run Date	Entry Price	Target %	Target Price	Hit?	Days	Actual %	Price on Target Date
1	IBM	International Business Machines Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-24	253.84	+5.0%	266.53	HIT	5	17.32%	—
2	NOW	ServiceNow, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-24	102.13	+5.0%	107.24	HIT	4	6.46%	—
3	LLY	Eli Lilly and Company	S&P 500	2026-05-24	1065.00	+5.0%	1118.25	HIT	4	5.80%	—
4	CRM	Salesforce, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-24	180.07	+5.0%	189.07	HIT	5	6.13%	—
5	ASML	ASML Holding N.V.	S&P 500	2026-05-24	1632.90	+5.0%	1714.55	HIT	10	5.72%	—
1	STAN.L	Standard Chartered PLC	Ftse 100	2026-05-22	1946.00	+5.0%	2043.30	HIT	10	6.01%	—
2	HSBA.L	HSBC Holdings plc	Ftse 100	2026-05-22	1374.20	+5.0%	1442.91	MISS	—	4.18%	1431.60
3	DGE.L	Diageo plc	Ftse 100	2026-05-22	1600.00	+5.0%	1680.00	MISS	—	-4.38%	1530.00
4	BA.L	BAE Systems plc	Ftse 100	2026-05-22	1993.50	+5.0%	2093.18	MISS	—	-7.37%	1846.50
5	WPP.L	WPP plc	Ftse 100	2026-05-22	275.90	+5.0%	289.70	MISS	—	-1.63%	271.40
1	ADP	Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-22	225.31	+5.0%	236.58	MISS	—	-3.06%	218.41
2	AMD	Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-22	467.51	+5.0%	490.89	HIT	4	7.78%	—
1	MRVL	Marvell Technology, Inc.	NASDAQ	2026-05-22	196.33	+5.0%	206.15	HIT	4	6.08%	—
2	ARM	Arm Holdings plc	NASDAQ	2026-05-22	306.51	+5.0%	321.84	HIT	6	9.38%	—
3	FTNT	Fortinet, Inc.	NASDAQ	2026-05-22	133.93	+5.0%	140.63	HIT	10	9.86%	—
4	CRWD	CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.	NASDAQ	2026-05-22	663.46	+5.0%	696.63	HIT	7	10.18%	—
5	DDOG	Datadog, Inc.	NASDAQ	2026-05-22	222.32	+5.0%	233.44	HIT	7	11.26%	—
1	DGE.L	Diageo plc	FTSE 100	2026-05-22	1602.50	+5.0%	1682.62	MISS	—	-4.52%	1530.00
2	MNG.L	M&G plc	FTSE 100	2026-05-22	314.60	+5.0%	330.32	HIT	28	5.21%	—
3	STAN.L	Standard Chartered PLC	FTSE 100	2026-05-22	1937.50	+5.0%	2034.39	HIT	11	6.48%	—
4	WPP.L	WPP plc	FTSE 100	2026-05-22	274.70	+5.0%	288.42	MISS	—	-1.20%	271.40
1	SNOW	Snowflake Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-22	165.54	+5.0%	173.82	HIT	4	7.29%	—
2	SWKS	Skyworks Solutions, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-22	73.54	+5.0%	77.21	HIT	0	12.08%	—
3	LLY	Eli Lilly and Company	S&P 500	2026-05-22	1041.65	+5.0%	1093.73	HIT	6	8.17%	—
4	CRWD	CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-22	648.23	+5.0%	680.64	HIT	7	12.77%	—
5	PANW	Palo Alto Networks, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-22	252.92	+5.0%	265.57	HIT	7	11.38%	—
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-17	225.32	+5.0%	236.59	MISS	—	-100.00%	0.00
2	UNH	UnitedHealth Group Incorporated	S&P 500	2026-05-17	393.85	+5.0%	413.54	MISS	—	-100.00%	0.00
3	LLY	Eli Lilly and Company	S&P 500	2026-05-17	1004.92	+5.0%	1055.17	HIT	5	5.98%	—
4	CRWD	CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-17	594.08	+5.0%	623.78	HIT	3	9.43%	—
5	PANW	Palo Alto Networks, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-17	242.83	+5.0%	254.97	HIT	5	7.31%	—
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-14	225.83	+10.0%	248.41	MISS	—	-9.14%	205.19
2	TSLA	Tesla, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-14	445.27	+10.0%	489.80	MISS	—	-8.72%	406.43
3	CSCO	Cisco Systems, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-14	101.87	+10.0%	112.06	HIT	0	13.41%	—
4	UNH	UnitedHealth Group Incorporated	S&P 500	2026-05-14	401.16	+10.0%	441.28	MISS	—	1.83%	408.52
5	AAPL	Apple Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-14	298.87	+10.0%	328.76	MISS	—	-2.59%	291.13
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-13	220.78	+10.0%	242.86	MISS	—	-7.06%	205.19
2	CRWD	CrowdStrike Holdings	S&P 500	2026-05-13	546.18	+10.0%	600.80	HIT	5	13.30%	—
3	AMAT	Applied Materials	S&P 500	2026-05-13	431.20	+10.0%	474.32	HIT	20	13.65%	—
4	VRT	Vertiv Holdings	S&P 500	2026-05-13	367.13	+10.0%	403.84	MISS	—	-17.50%	302.87
5	PANW	Palo Alto Networks	S&P 500	2026-05-13	215.60	+10.0%	237.16	HIT	1	10.49%	—
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-12	219.44	+10.0%	241.38	MISS	—	-6.64%	204.87
2	ORCL	Oracle Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-12	193.84	+10.0%	213.22	HIT	17	16.48%	—
3	CSCO	Cisco Systems, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-12	98.72	+10.0%	108.59	HIT	2	17.03%	—
4	LRCX	Lam Research Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-12	296.05	+10.0%	325.66	HIT	21	12.96%	—
5	CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-12	926.79	+10.0%	1019.47	MISS	—	-3.15%	897.63
1	LRCX	Lam Research Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-11	294.05	+10.0%	323.46	HIT	22	13.73%	—
2	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	400.71	+10.0%	440.78	MISS	—	-11.06%	356.38
3	ASML	ASML Holding N.V.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	1592.02	+10.0%	1751.22	HIT	24	10.39%	—
4	TSLA	Tesla, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	428.35	+10.0%	471.19	MISS	—	-10.92%	381.59
5	ORCL	Oracle Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-11	195.95	+10.0%	215.55	HIT	18	15.22%	—
1	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	400.71	+5.0%	420.83	MISS	—	-11.06%	356.38
2	AAPL	Apple Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	293.26	+5.0%	307.95	HIT	11	5.31%	—
3	MRVL	Marvell Technology, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	170.13	+5.0%	178.64	HIT	3	7.32%	—
4	PANW	Palo Alto Networks, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	207.88	+5.0%	218.27	HIT	2	9.58%	—
5	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-11	215.22	+5.0%	225.99	HIT	3	9.53%	—
1	MRVL	Marvell Technology, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	170.13	+12.0%	190.55	HIT	11	12.08%	—
2	CRWD	CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	527.77	+12.0%	591.10	HIT	5	12.56%	—
3	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	430.00	+12.0%	481.60	MISS	—	-8.80%	392.16
4	PANW	Palo Alto Networks, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	207.88	+12.0%	232.83	HIT	4	14.59%	—
5	LRCX	Lam Research Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-10	294.05	+12.0%	329.34	HIT	23	13.73%	—
1	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	430.00	+4.0%	447.20	HIT	22	6.97%	—
2	AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	272.68	+4.0%	283.59	MISS	—	-10.45%	244.19
3	ADI	Analog Devices, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	416.52	+4.0%	433.18	HIT	24	5.08%	—
4	MRVL	Marvell Technology, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	170.13	+4.0%	176.94	HIT	3	4.60%	—
5	SNPS	Synopsys, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	516.48	+4.0%	537.14	MISS	—	-9.92%	465.27
1	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	430.00	+4.0%	447.20	HIT	22	6.97%	—
2	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	400.71	+4.0%	416.74	MISS	—	-9.10%	364.26
3	ASML	ASML Holding N.V.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	1592.02	+4.0%	1655.70	HIT	23	7.12%	—
4	AAPL	Apple Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	293.26	+4.0%	304.99	HIT	12	5.31%	—
5	AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	272.68	+4.0%	283.59	MISS	—	-10.45%	244.19
1	LRCX	Lam Research Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-10	294.05	+10.0%	323.46	HIT	23	13.73%	—
2	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	430.00	+10.0%	473.00	HIT	23	11.99%	—
3	ASML	ASML Holding N.V.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	1592.02	+10.0%	1751.22	HIT	25	10.39%	—
4	ADI	Analog Devices, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	416.52	+10.0%	458.17	MISS	—	-2.86%	404.62
5	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-10	215.22	+10.0%	236.74	MISS	—	-3.27%	208.19
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-09	215.20	+5.0%	225.96	HIT	5	9.54%	—
2	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	430.00	+5.0%	451.50	HIT	23	6.97%	—
3	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	400.80	+5.0%	420.84	MISS	—	-9.35%	363.31
4	AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	272.68	+5.0%	286.31	MISS	—	-10.07%	245.22
5	AAPL	Apple Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	293.32	+5.0%	307.99	HIT	13	5.28%	—
1	MSFT	Microsoft Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-09	415.12	+5.0%	435.88	HIT	20	8.46%	—
2	AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	272.68	+5.0%	286.31	MISS	—	-10.07%	245.22
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-09	215.20	+10.0%	236.72	MISS	—	-3.05%	208.64
2	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	430.00	+10.0%	473.00	HIT	24	11.99%	—
3	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	400.80	+10.0%	440.88	MISS	—	-9.35%	363.31