StockPicker Backtest

Overall

Hit rate

58.3%

Avg return

-0.40%

Total picks

60

Winners / Misses

35 / 25

Avg days to target

13.3

Per-agent accuracy

Hit rate and average return across every resolved pick each agent backed. "Solo" counts picks that agent backed alone.

Agent	Picks selected	Hit rate	Avg return
Aria	39	59.0%	0.96%
Blaze	18	61.1%	-6.87%
Nova	41	65.9%	-0.18%
Orion	48	58.3%	-1.00%
Quinn	0	—	—

Performance by pick position

Pick position	Picks	Hit rate	Avg return	Avg days to target
Pick 1	13	53.8%	-5.04%	17.9
Pick 2	13	53.8%	-5.45%	15.4
Pick 3	12	75.0%	5.24%	14.0
Pick 4	11	54.5%	1.54%	7.5
Pick 5	11	54.5%	2.93%	10.5

Probability Calibration

Compares what the agents predicted against what actually happened. Calibrated rates use isotonic regression to enforce monotonicity.

Probability bucket	Samples	Raw agent %	Empirical hit rate	Calibrated rate
50–59%	4	~54%	50 %	50 %
60–69%	49	~64%	57 %	57 %
70–79%	7	~74%	71 %	71 %

Top 5 winners / losers

Top winners

Symbol	Run Date	Entry	Actual %	Hit?
CSCO	2026-05-12	98.72	17.03%	HIT
ORCL	2026-05-12	193.84	16.48%	HIT
ORCL	2026-05-11	195.95	15.22%	HIT
PANW	2026-05-10	207.88	14.59%	HIT
LRCX	2026-05-10	294.05	13.73%	HIT

Top losers

Symbol	Run Date	Entry	Actual %	Hit?
NVDA	2026-05-17	225.32	-100.00%	MISS
UNH	2026-05-17	393.85	-100.00%	MISS
VRT	2026-05-13	367.13	-17.50%	MISS
GOOGL	2026-05-11	400.71	-11.06%	MISS
GOOGL	2026-05-11	400.71	-11.06%	MISS

All Picks

Rank	Symbol	Company	Index	Run Date	Entry Price	Target %	Target Price	Hit?	Days	Actual %	Price on Target Date
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-17	225.32	+5.0%	236.59	MISS	—	-100.00%	0.00
2	UNH	UnitedHealth Group Incorporated	S&P 500	2026-05-17	393.85	+5.0%	413.54	MISS	—	-100.00%	0.00
3	LLY	Eli Lilly and Company	S&P 500	2026-05-17	1004.92	+5.0%	1055.17	HIT	5	5.98%	—
4	CRWD	CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-17	594.08	+5.0%	623.78	HIT	3	9.43%	—
5	PANW	Palo Alto Networks, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-17	242.83	+5.0%	254.97	HIT	5	7.31%	—
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-14	225.83	+10.0%	248.41	MISS	—	-9.14%	205.19
2	TSLA	Tesla, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-14	445.27	+10.0%	489.80	MISS	—	-8.72%	406.43
3	CSCO	Cisco Systems, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-14	101.87	+10.0%	112.06	HIT	0	13.41%	—
4	UNH	UnitedHealth Group Incorporated	S&P 500	2026-05-14	401.16	+10.0%	441.28	MISS	—	1.83%	408.52
5	AAPL	Apple Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-14	298.87	+10.0%	328.76	MISS	—	-2.59%	291.13
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-13	220.78	+10.0%	242.86	MISS	—	-7.06%	205.19
2	CRWD	CrowdStrike Holdings	S&P 500	2026-05-13	546.18	+10.0%	600.80	HIT	5	13.30%	—
3	AMAT	Applied Materials	S&P 500	2026-05-13	431.20	+10.0%	474.32	HIT	20	13.65%	—
4	VRT	Vertiv Holdings	S&P 500	2026-05-13	367.13	+10.0%	403.84	MISS	—	-17.50%	302.87
5	PANW	Palo Alto Networks	S&P 500	2026-05-13	215.60	+10.0%	237.16	HIT	1	10.49%	—
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-12	219.44	+10.0%	241.38	MISS	—	-6.64%	204.87
2	ORCL	Oracle Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-12	193.84	+10.0%	213.22	HIT	17	16.48%	—
3	CSCO	Cisco Systems, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-12	98.72	+10.0%	108.59	HIT	2	17.03%	—
4	LRCX	Lam Research Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-12	296.05	+10.0%	325.66	HIT	21	12.96%	—
5	CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-12	926.79	+10.0%	1019.47	MISS	—	-3.15%	897.63
1	LRCX	Lam Research Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-11	294.05	+10.0%	323.46	HIT	22	13.73%	—
2	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	400.71	+10.0%	440.78	MISS	—	-11.06%	356.38
3	ASML	ASML Holding N.V.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	1592.02	+10.0%	1751.22	HIT	24	10.39%	—
4	TSLA	Tesla, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	428.35	+10.0%	471.19	MISS	—	-10.92%	381.59
5	ORCL	Oracle Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-11	195.95	+10.0%	215.55	HIT	18	15.22%	—
1	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	400.71	+5.0%	420.83	MISS	—	-11.06%	356.38
2	AAPL	Apple Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	293.26	+5.0%	307.95	HIT	11	5.31%	—
3	MRVL	Marvell Technology, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	170.13	+5.0%	178.64	HIT	3	7.32%	—
4	PANW	Palo Alto Networks, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	207.88	+5.0%	218.27	HIT	2	9.58%	—
5	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-11	215.22	+5.0%	225.99	HIT	3	9.53%	—
1	MRVL	Marvell Technology, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	170.13	+12.0%	190.55	HIT	11	12.08%	—
2	CRWD	CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	527.77	+12.0%	591.10	HIT	5	12.56%	—
3	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	430.00	+12.0%	481.60	MISS	—	-8.80%	392.16
4	PANW	Palo Alto Networks, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	207.88	+12.0%	232.83	HIT	4	14.59%	—
5	LRCX	Lam Research Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-10	294.05	+12.0%	329.34	HIT	23	13.73%	—
1	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	430.00	+4.0%	447.20	HIT	22	6.97%	—
2	AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	272.68	+4.0%	283.59	MISS	—	-10.45%	244.19
3	ADI	Analog Devices, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	416.52	+4.0%	433.18	HIT	24	5.08%	—
4	MRVL	Marvell Technology, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	170.13	+4.0%	176.94	HIT	3	4.60%	—
5	SNPS	Synopsys, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	516.48	+4.0%	537.14	MISS	—	-9.92%	465.27
1	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	430.00	+4.0%	447.20	HIT	22	6.97%	—
2	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	400.71	+4.0%	416.74	MISS	—	-9.10%	364.26
3	ASML	ASML Holding N.V.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	1592.02	+4.0%	1655.70	HIT	23	7.12%	—
4	AAPL	Apple Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	293.26	+4.0%	304.99	HIT	12	5.31%	—
5	AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	272.68	+4.0%	283.59	MISS	—	-10.45%	244.19
1	LRCX	Lam Research Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-10	294.05	+10.0%	323.46	HIT	23	13.73%	—
2	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	430.00	+10.0%	473.00	HIT	23	11.99%	—
3	ASML	ASML Holding N.V.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	1592.02	+10.0%	1751.22	HIT	25	10.39%	—
4	ADI	Analog Devices, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	416.52	+10.0%	458.17	MISS	—	-2.86%	404.62
5	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-10	215.22	+10.0%	236.74	MISS	—	-3.27%	208.19
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-09	215.20	+5.0%	225.96	HIT	5	9.54%	—
2	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	430.00	+5.0%	451.50	HIT	23	6.97%	—
3	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	400.80	+5.0%	420.84	MISS	—	-9.35%	363.31
4	AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	272.68	+5.0%	286.31	MISS	—	-10.07%	245.22
5	AAPL	Apple Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	293.32	+5.0%	307.99	HIT	13	5.28%	—
1	MSFT	Microsoft Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-09	415.12	+5.0%	435.88	HIT	20	8.46%	—
2	AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	272.68	+5.0%	286.31	MISS	—	-10.07%	245.22
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-09	215.20	+10.0%	236.72	MISS	—	-3.05%	208.64
2	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	430.00	+10.0%	473.00	HIT	24	11.99%	—
3	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	400.80	+10.0%	440.88	MISS	—	-9.35%	363.31