StockPicker Backtest

Overall

Hit rate

58.3%

Avg return

-0.40%

Total picks

60

Winners / Misses

35 / 25

Avg days to target

13.3

Per-agent solo accuracy

Agent	Hit rate	Avg return
Aria	—	—
Blaze	—	—
Nova	—	—
Orion	—	—

Performance by pick position

Pick position	Picks	Hit rate	Avg return	Avg days to target
Pick 1	13	53.8%	-5.04%	17.9
Pick 2	13	53.8%	-5.45%	15.4
Pick 3	12	75.0%	5.24%	14.0
Pick 4	11	54.5%	1.54%	7.5
Pick 5	11	54.5%	2.93%	10.5

Probability Calibration

Compares what the agents predicted against what actually happened. Calibrated rates use isotonic regression to enforce monotonicity.

Probability bucket	Samples	Raw agent %	Empirical hit rate	Calibrated rate
50–59%	4	~54%	50 %	50 %
60–69%	49	~64%	57 %	57 %
70–79%	7	~74%	71 %	71 %

All Picks

Rank	Symbol	Company	Index	Run Date	Target %	Target Price	Hit?	Days	Actual %	Price on Target Date
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-17	+5.0%	236.59	MISS	—	-100.00%	0.00
2	UNH	UnitedHealth Group Incorporated	S&P 500	2026-05-17	+5.0%	413.54	MISS	—	-100.00%	0.00
3	LLY	Eli Lilly and Company	S&P 500	2026-05-17	+5.0%	1055.17	HIT	5	5.98%	—
4	CRWD	CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-17	+5.0%	623.78	HIT	3	9.43%	—
5	PANW	Palo Alto Networks, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-17	+5.0%	254.97	HIT	5	7.31%	—
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-14	+10.0%	248.41	MISS	—	-9.14%	205.19
2	TSLA	Tesla, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-14	+10.0%	489.80	MISS	—	-8.72%	406.43
3	CSCO	Cisco Systems, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-14	+10.0%	112.06	HIT	0	13.41%	—
4	UNH	UnitedHealth Group Incorporated	S&P 500	2026-05-14	+10.0%	441.28	MISS	—	1.83%	408.52
5	AAPL	Apple Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-14	+10.0%	328.76	MISS	—	-2.59%	291.13
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-13	+10.0%	242.86	MISS	—	-7.06%	205.19
2	CRWD	CrowdStrike Holdings	S&P 500	2026-05-13	+10.0%	600.80	HIT	5	13.30%	—
3	AMAT	Applied Materials	S&P 500	2026-05-13	+10.0%	474.32	HIT	20	13.65%	—
4	VRT	Vertiv Holdings	S&P 500	2026-05-13	+10.0%	403.84	MISS	—	-17.50%	302.87
5	PANW	Palo Alto Networks	S&P 500	2026-05-13	+10.0%	237.16	HIT	1	10.49%	—
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-12	+10.0%	241.38	MISS	—	-6.64%	204.87
2	ORCL	Oracle Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-12	+10.0%	213.22	HIT	17	16.48%	—
3	CSCO	Cisco Systems, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-12	+10.0%	108.59	HIT	2	17.03%	—
4	LRCX	Lam Research Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-12	+10.0%	325.66	HIT	21	12.96%	—
5	CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-12	+10.0%	1019.47	MISS	—	-3.15%	897.63
1	LRCX	Lam Research Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-11	+10.0%	323.46	HIT	22	13.73%	—
2	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	+10.0%	440.78	MISS	—	-11.06%	356.38
3	ASML	ASML Holding N.V.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	+10.0%	1751.22	HIT	24	10.39%	—
4	TSLA	Tesla, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	+10.0%	471.19	MISS	—	-10.92%	381.59
5	ORCL	Oracle Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-11	+10.0%	215.55	HIT	18	15.22%	—
1	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	+5.0%	420.83	MISS	—	-11.06%	356.38
2	AAPL	Apple Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	+5.0%	307.95	HIT	11	5.31%	—
3	MRVL	Marvell Technology, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	+5.0%	178.64	HIT	3	7.32%	—
4	PANW	Palo Alto Networks, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-11	+5.0%	218.27	HIT	2	9.58%	—
5	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-11	+5.0%	225.99	HIT	3	9.53%	—
1	MRVL	Marvell Technology, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+12.0%	190.55	HIT	11	12.08%	—
2	CRWD	CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+12.0%	591.10	HIT	5	12.56%	—
3	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+12.0%	481.60	MISS	—	-8.80%	392.16
4	PANW	Palo Alto Networks, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+12.0%	232.83	HIT	4	14.59%	—
5	LRCX	Lam Research Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+12.0%	329.34	HIT	23	13.73%	—
1	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+4.0%	447.20	HIT	22	6.97%	—
2	AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+4.0%	283.59	MISS	—	-10.45%	244.19
3	ADI	Analog Devices, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+4.0%	433.18	HIT	24	5.08%	—
4	MRVL	Marvell Technology, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+4.0%	176.94	HIT	3	4.60%	—
5	SNPS	Synopsys, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+4.0%	537.14	MISS	—	-9.92%	465.27
1	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+4.0%	447.20	HIT	22	6.97%	—
2	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+4.0%	416.74	MISS	—	-9.10%	364.26
3	ASML	ASML Holding N.V.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+4.0%	1655.70	HIT	23	7.12%	—
4	AAPL	Apple Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+4.0%	304.99	HIT	12	5.31%	—
5	AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+4.0%	283.59	MISS	—	-10.45%	244.19
1	LRCX	Lam Research Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+10.0%	323.46	HIT	23	13.73%	—
2	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+10.0%	473.00	HIT	23	11.99%	—
3	ASML	ASML Holding N.V.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+10.0%	1751.22	HIT	25	10.39%	—
4	ADI	Analog Devices, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+10.0%	458.17	MISS	—	-2.86%	404.62
5	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-10	+10.0%	236.74	MISS	—	-3.27%	208.19
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-09	+5.0%	225.96	HIT	5	9.54%	—
2	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	+5.0%	451.50	HIT	23	6.97%	—
3	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	+5.0%	420.84	MISS	—	-9.35%	363.31
4	AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	+5.0%	286.31	MISS	—	-10.07%	245.22
5	AAPL	Apple Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	+5.0%	307.99	HIT	13	5.28%	—
1	MSFT	Microsoft Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-09	+5.0%	435.88	HIT	20	8.46%	—
2	AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	+5.0%	286.31	MISS	—	-10.07%	245.22
1	NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	S&P 500	2026-05-09	+10.0%	236.72	MISS	—	-3.05%	208.64
2	AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	+10.0%	473.00	HIT	24	11.99%	—
3	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	S&P 500	2026-05-09	+10.0%	440.88	MISS	—	-9.35%	363.31