StockPicker Backtest

55 resolved picks · generated 2026-06-15 10:26 UTC

Overall

Hit rate
58.2%
Avg return
2.78%
Total picks
55
Winners / Misses
32 / 23
Avg days to target
14.2

Per-agent solo accuracy

AgentSolo picksHit rateAvg return
Aria0
Blaze0
Nova0
Orion0

Probability Calibration

Compares what the agents predicted against what actually happened. Calibrated rates use isotonic regression to enforce monotonicity.

Probability bucketSamplesRaw agent %Empirical hit rateCalibrated rate
50–59%4~54%50 %50 %
60–69%46~64%59 %59 %
70–79%5~74%60 %60 %

All Picks

RankSymbolCompanyIndexRun DateTarget %Target PriceHit?DaysActual %Price on Target Date
1NVDANVIDIA CorporationS&P 5002026-05-14+10.0%248.41MISS-9.14%205.19
2TSLATesla, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-14+10.0%489.80MISS-8.72%406.43
3CSCOCisco Systems, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-14+10.0%112.06HIT013.41%
4UNHUnitedHealth Group IncorporatedS&P 5002026-05-14+10.0%441.28MISS1.83%408.52
5AAPLApple Inc.S&P 5002026-05-14+10.0%328.76MISS-2.59%291.13
1NVDANVIDIA CorporationS&P 5002026-05-13+10.0%242.86MISS-7.06%205.19
2CRWDCrowdStrike HoldingsS&P 5002026-05-13+10.0%600.80HIT513.30%
3AMATApplied MaterialsS&P 5002026-05-13+10.0%474.32HIT2013.65%
4VRTVertiv HoldingsS&P 5002026-05-13+10.0%403.84MISS-17.50%302.87
5PANWPalo Alto NetworksS&P 5002026-05-13+10.0%237.16HIT110.49%
1NVDANVIDIA CorporationS&P 5002026-05-12+10.0%241.38MISS-6.64%204.87
2ORCLOracle CorporationS&P 5002026-05-12+10.0%213.22HIT1716.48%
3CSCOCisco Systems, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-12+10.0%108.59HIT217.03%
4LRCXLam Research CorporationS&P 5002026-05-12+10.0%325.66HIT2112.96%
5CATCaterpillar Inc.S&P 5002026-05-12+10.0%1019.47MISS-3.15%897.63
1LRCXLam Research CorporationS&P 5002026-05-11+10.0%323.46HIT2213.73%
2GOOGLAlphabet Inc.S&P 5002026-05-11+10.0%440.78MISS-11.06%356.38
3ASMLASML Holding N.V.S&P 5002026-05-11+10.0%1751.22HIT2410.39%
4TSLATesla, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-11+10.0%471.19MISS-10.92%381.59
5ORCLOracle CorporationS&P 5002026-05-11+10.0%215.55HIT1815.22%
1GOOGLAlphabet Inc.S&P 5002026-05-11+5.0%420.83MISS-11.06%356.38
2AAPLApple Inc.S&P 5002026-05-11+5.0%307.95HIT115.31%
3MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-11+5.0%178.64HIT37.32%
4PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-11+5.0%218.27HIT29.58%
5NVDANVIDIA CorporationS&P 5002026-05-11+5.0%225.99HIT39.53%
1MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+12.0%190.55HIT1112.08%
2CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+12.0%591.10HIT512.56%
3AVGOBroadcom Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+12.0%481.60MISS-8.80%392.16
4PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+12.0%232.83HIT414.59%
5LRCXLam Research CorporationS&P 5002026-05-10+12.0%329.34HIT2313.73%
1AVGOBroadcom Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+4.0%447.20HIT226.97%
2AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+4.0%283.59MISS-10.45%244.19
3ADIAnalog Devices, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+4.0%433.18HIT245.08%
4MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+4.0%176.94HIT34.60%
5SNPSSynopsys, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+4.0%537.14MISS-9.92%465.27
1AVGOBroadcom Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+4.0%447.20HIT226.97%
2GOOGLAlphabet Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+4.0%416.74MISS-9.10%364.26
3ASMLASML Holding N.V.S&P 5002026-05-10+4.0%1655.70HIT237.12%
4AAPLApple Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+4.0%304.99HIT125.31%
5AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+4.0%283.59MISS-10.45%244.19
1LRCXLam Research CorporationS&P 5002026-05-10+10.0%323.46HIT2313.73%
2AVGOBroadcom Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+10.0%473.00HIT2311.99%
3ASMLASML Holding N.V.S&P 5002026-05-10+10.0%1751.22HIT2510.39%
4ADIAnalog Devices, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-10+10.0%458.17MISS-2.86%404.62
5NVDANVIDIA CorporationS&P 5002026-05-10+10.0%236.74MISS-3.27%208.19
1NVDANVIDIA CorporationS&P 5002026-05-09+5.0%225.96HIT59.54%
2AVGOBroadcom Inc.S&P 5002026-05-09+5.0%451.50HIT236.97%
3GOOGLAlphabet Inc.S&P 5002026-05-09+5.0%420.84MISS-9.35%363.31
4AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-09+5.0%286.31MISS-10.07%245.22
5AAPLApple Inc.S&P 5002026-05-09+5.0%307.99HIT135.28%
1MSFTMicrosoft CorporationS&P 5002026-05-09+5.0%435.88HIT208.46%
2AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.S&P 5002026-05-09+5.0%286.31MISS-10.07%245.22
1NVDANVIDIA CorporationS&P 5002026-05-09+10.0%236.72MISS-3.05%208.64
2AVGOBroadcom Inc.S&P 5002026-05-09+10.0%473.00HIT2411.99%
3GOOGLAlphabet Inc.S&P 5002026-05-09+10.0%440.88MISS-9.35%363.31