Friday, November 13, 2026 · Five AI analysts screened this index for stocks with the best shot at gaining +5% within 30 days
Neutral Normal choppiness · VIX 19.2
The NASDAQ 100 is in the middle of a sharp two-speed move: the vast majority of constituents remain 20-60% below their 52-week highs after a severe multi-week drawdown concentrated in AI/semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names, yet almost every stock posted a positive 5-day return, pointing to a broad oversold bounce. A smaller group of defensive/steady compounders (staples, healthcare, business services) never fell far and sit near their highs with consistently positive 5-day and 30-day returns. Given the depth of the prior drawdown, near-term 5%+ gains look most plausible either as continuation of the oversold bounce in beaten-down semis/memory names or as steady grinding gains in the names that held up best.
Which of today's picks to actually take, and at what size, given what you are already holding. Each pick's own Suggested Allocation sizes it in isolation; this table applies the portfolio limits — at most 20 open positions and 60% of the portfolio committed in total. Run with --capital 25000 to see these sizes as order amounts rather than percentages.
| Rank | Stock | Action | Size | Entry → Target | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | TTWO | SKIP | — | $227.66 → $239.04 stop $206.94 |
Half-Kelly sizes this at 0% — the odds carry no edge worth capital. |
| #2 | TXN | SKIP | — | $304.64 → $319.89 stop $277.53 |
Half-Kelly sizes this at 0% — the odds carry no edge worth capital. |
| #3 | AAPL | SKIP | — | $356.29 → $374.25 stop $329.57 |
Half-Kelly sizes this at 0% — the odds carry no edge worth capital. |
| #4 | TSLA | SKIP | — | $392.19 → $411.80 stop $358.85 |
Half-Kelly sizes this at 0% — the odds carry no edge worth capital. |
Already open: UNH (to Nov 14), ULVR.L (to Nov 18), PFE (to Nov 19), ROST (to Nov 19), CSX (to Nov 21), TRV (to Nov 22), SGE.L (to Nov 25), SVT.L (to Nov 25), NSC (to Nov 26), RTX (to Nov 27), SO (to Nov 27), CNA.L (to Nov 27) … and 91 more. Symbols you already hold were excluded from this run's candidates rather than re-picked.
Position-sizing guidance only — half-Kelly per pick, bounded by the limits above. Not personal investment advice.
Take-Two Interactive publishes video games including Grand Theft Auto and NBA 2K. The stock has surged over the past month and is sharply outperforming the overall market, likely on optimism tied to upcoming game releases. The main risk is that much of the gain has already happened, so the stock could stall or pull back if news doesn't live up to high expectations.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 59% (raw model estimate: 62%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.
What each AI analyst estimated
Texas Instruments makes analog and embedded chips used in almost everything electronic, from cars to factory equipment. Its stock has held up far better than the rest of the chip sector during this month's semiconductor sell-off, actually climbing while many peers fell sharply, suggesting investors see it as a steadier chip name. The main risk is that it's still part of the chip sector, so a renewed wave of fear like the one hitting other semiconductor names this week could drag it down too.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 59% (raw model estimate: 62%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.
What each AI analyst estimated
Apple makes iPhones, Macs, and runs one of the world's largest app and services businesses. The stock is sitting near its highest level of the year and outperforming the broader market even while chip-related names sold off sharply around it, pointing to strong and durable demand. The main risk is that the stock has run up quickly, so any disappointment on iPhone demand or a broader market wobble could trigger a pullback.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 59% (raw model estimate: 62%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.
What each AI analyst estimated
Tesla makes electric vehicles and is expanding into energy storage and autonomous driving technology. While flashier AI-chip stocks got hammered this week, Tesla has quietly climbed and is beating the broader market, a sign of steady investor confidence. The main risk is that Tesla's stock is historically volatile and can swing sharply on delivery numbers, regulatory news, or headlines about its CEO.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 59% (raw model estimate: 65%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.
What each AI analyst estimated
This report identifies stocks with an AI-assessed probability of gaining +5% within 30 calendar days (target exit by December 13, 2026). Picks are ranked by how many independent AI agents agreed — more agreement means higher conviction. The guide below tells you exactly how to act on them.
Step-by-Step Action Plan
Position Sizing by Conviction Tier
Size each position according to the coloured border on its pick card. Cap your total exposure across all picks from this report at 25% of your overall trading budget.
| Agents Agreeing | What It Means | Max Allocation Per Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 5/5 | Highest conviction — all five independent analytical checks passed | Up to 10% |
| 4/5 | Very high conviction — four of five independent checks aligned | Up to 8% |
| 3/5 | High conviction — three agents independently agreed | Up to 6% |
| 2/5 | Moderate conviction — two agents independently agreed | Up to 4% |
| 1 Agent | Speculative — solo pick, admitted only at Very High confidence | Up to 2% |
The Three Exit Rules
A plain-English guide to every figure shown on each pick card — what it means, how it is calculated, and what a good or bad value looks like.
Scout scanned 101 NASDAQ 100 constituents and short-listed 27 candidates for deep analysis by the five analysts. Here is what happened to each one.
Checks 30-day price history for every candidate before making any selection. Requires positive period return and positive 5-day momentum as mandatory gates. Ranks picks by proximity to their period high and adjusts probability based on volume. Uses news only to rule out major negative catalysts.
Searches earnings results, analyst upgrades, and revenue trends before checking price data. Requires at least one verifiable fundamental catalyst — earnings beat, analyst upgrade, or revenue acceleration — within the last 60 days. Favours stocks with strong fundamentals trading below recent highs (value entry).
Hunts for specific events within the last 21 days: FDA approvals, major contract wins, product launches, earnings surprises, or significant analyst upgrades. Requires a positive price reaction confirming the market is recognising the catalyst. Also scans for upcoming events that could drive further gains.
Maps the macroeconomic regime (risk-on / risk-off / neutral) and identifies sectors benefiting from current conditions before looking at individual stocks. Only selects stocks from macro-aligned sectors with confirmed sector tailwinds. Adjusts for interest rate sensitivity and geopolitical factors.
Reviews the final picks after all four analysts agree and actively challenges each bull thesis. Searches for bearish technical signals, negative news, insider selling, and elevated short interest that the agreeing agents may have underweighted. Produces evidence-based counter-arguments shown on each pick card.
Pure-quant analyst: no news, no narrative, only numbers. Identifies mean-reversion setups from RSI extremes (<35) with momentum turning, Bollinger squeeze breakouts, and multi-factor quant scores using RSI, MACD, OBV, short interest, and insider transaction data. Counterbalances narrative bias across the four analyst agents.