StockPicker Report — FTSE 100

Today's Market Mood

Neutral Normal choppiness · VIX 15.6

FTSE 100 breadth has been weak over the trailing month, with brutal 10-16% pullbacks across banks (Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, Standard Chartered), miners (Rio, Glencore, Antofagasta, Fresnillo) and insurers/asset managers (3i, Prudential, ICG), suggesting a broad risk-off rotation out of cyclicals and rate-sensitive financials. Against that backdrop, energy (Shell, BP), tobacco (Imperial Brands, BAT), defensive staples/utilities and a handful of steady industrials/tech names are showing genuine positive 5-day and 30-day momentum while trading close to their 52-week highs, pointing to a defensive-and-value rotation rather than a broad uptrend.

Rotation out of banks, miners and insurers into energy and defensivesOil & gas strength (Shell and BP both near 52-week highs with multi-week gains)Tobacco sector momentum (Imperial Brands, BAT) despite still being well off highsSelective resilience in utilities, tech trusts and specialty industrials near their highs

Today's Actionable List

Which of today's picks to actually take, and at what size, given what you are already holding. Each pick's own Suggested Allocation sizes it in isolation; this table applies the portfolio limits — at most 20 open positions and 60% of the portfolio committed in total. Run with --capital 25000 to see these sizes as order amounts rather than percentages.

Take today0 of 5

New exposure0%

Already open51 · 102%

Total after today102% / 60%

Slots left0 of 20

Rank	Stock	Action	Size	Entry → Target	Notes
#1	SGE.L	SKIP	—	£1,027.50 → £1,078.88 stop £928.86	Half-Kelly sizes this at 0% — the odds carry no edge worth capital.
#2	IMB.L	SKIP	—	£2,614.00 → £2,744.70 stop £2,373.51	Half-Kelly sizes this at 0% — the odds carry no edge worth capital.
#3	TSCO.L	SKIP	—	£500.40 → £525.42 stop £466.87	Half-Kelly sizes this at 0% — the odds carry no edge worth capital.
#4	MKS.L	SKIP	—	£396.10 → £415.90 stop £375.50	Position cap reached — 51 of 20 slots in use.
#5	SHEL.L	SKIP	—	£3,780.50 → £3,969.52 stop £3,557.45	Position cap reached — 51 of 20 slots in use.

Already open: SDR.L (to Oct 9), VOD.L (to Oct 9), TSLA (to Oct 9), HCA (to Oct 11), WMT (to Oct 14), EBAY (to Oct 18), WDAY (to Oct 18), LGEN.L (to Oct 21), SSE.L (to Oct 21), MU (to Oct 22), IAG.L (to Oct 22), AAPL (to Oct 22) … and 39 more. Symbols you already hold were excluded from this run's candidates rather than re-picked.

Position-sizing guidance only — half-Kelly per pick, bounded by the limits above. Not personal investment advice.

Behind the scenes: how each AI analyst did

Aria

4 picks

Blaze

3 picks

Nova

3 picks

Orion

4 picks

Quinn

4 picks

5 Stock Picks

#1 SGE.LThe Sage Group plc

4/5 Agents Agree Risk 5/10 ⚠ Conflicting Signals

Moderate conviction · 55%

Sage is a British software company that makes accounting and payroll tools for small and medium-sized businesses. Its shares have been grinding higher and outpacing the broader UK market, helped by steady demand for business software. The key risk is that tech-adjacent stocks like this can swing harder than the defensive names also rallying right now if investor sentiment shifts.

Stop-loss£928.86-9.6%

Today's price£1,027.50

Target£1,078.88+5.0%

If you invested £1,000

▲£1,050 if the target hits (+5.0%)

▼£904 if the stop-loss is hit (-9.6%)

The AI puts the chance of the win case at 55%. Not a guarantee — always set the stop-loss.

Why the AI likes it

Both 30-day and 5-day momentum are positive while the stock beats its benchmark
RSI of 56.6 is in the healthy strength zone, with room to run before overbought
MACD line above its signal line with a positive histogram
Price trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Positive and accelerating 5-day momentum (+2.71%) building on a 30-day uptrend, outperforming the broader market by about 5 percentage points
Price is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a constructive trend structure
Currently about 13% below its 52-week high, leaving room to run as a value-style entry
Trading volume about 50% above its recent average alongside a positive 5-day trend, a reasonable confirmation signal

What could go wrong

As a software name, Sage can see outsized moves on any shift in growth-stock sentiment
Earnings land about 6 weeks out (Nov 19), inside the back half of the 30-day window, which could add volatility
Its edge over the benchmark is thinner than the other picks, leaving less cushion if the defensive rotation fades
Catalyst may already be priced in
Fundamental catalyst data was unavailable — thesis rests on price action
Richly-valued software stock could de-rate quickly if broad market risk-off conditions deepen

⚔ The Skeptic's View — Sage, the Devil's Advocate

MACD line is still negative at -2.19 (below its signal at -6.24) — the 'positive histogram' is a narrowing of a bearish gap, not a confirmed bullish crossover into positive territory.
Price at 1027.5 is already pressing the upper Bollinger Band (1036.5), leaving little room before mean-reversion kicks in despite the 'room to run' framing.

Show the detailed analysis

Calibrated probability: 55% (raw model estimate: 62%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.

Trade math

Reward : Risk0.5:1

Breakeven Win Rate66%

Expected Value-0.5%

Suggested Allocation0%

Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.

What each AI analyst estimated

Aria

75%

Very High

Blaze

56%

Medium

Nova

56%

Medium

Orion

61%

High

Quinn

—

Shows a decent momentum setup, but its relative strength versus the market is the weakest among the stronger candidates, offering less of a statistical edge.

Data Sources

Yahoo Finance Finviz MarketWatch Seeking Alpha

#2 IMB.LImperial Brands PLC

4/5 Agents Agree Risk 5/10

Moderate conviction · 55%

Imperial Brands sells cigarettes and other tobacco products worldwide, including well-known brands like Lambert & Butler and Davidoff. The stock has bounced strongly over the last month as investors rotate out of struggling UK banks and miners into steadier, dividend-paying defensive names. The main risk is that shares remain far below their highs, so this rally could stall if that defensive rotation loses steam.

Stop-loss£2,373.51-9.2%

Today's price£2,614.00

Target£2,744.70+5.0%

If you invested £1,000

▲£1,050 if the target hits (+5.0%)

▼£908 if the stop-loss is hit (-9.2%)

The AI puts the chance of the win case at 55%. Not a guarantee — always set the stop-loss.

Why the AI likes it

Strong 5-day momentum (+2.08%) and 30-day gain (+5.49%), beating the benchmark by nearly 10 percentage points
RSI of 66.5 shows healthy momentum without being overbought
MACD histogram strongly positive with the MACD line above its signal line
Fits the broader rotation into tobacco and defensive names as investors flee UK banks and miners
30-day price return of +5.49% with positive 5-day momentum (+2.08%), outperforming the broader UK market benchmark by about 9.7 percentage points
Trading well below its 52-week high despite the recent rally, offering a value-style entry point
Fits the broader defensive/tobacco rotation theme currently visible across UK equities
Trading volume nearly double its recent average alongside a 7.8% one-week gain, a solid confirmation signal

What could go wrong

Stock is still about 28% below its 52-week high, so this may be a partial bounce rather than a full trend change
Trading volume hasn't fully confirmed the price rise, a mild warning sign on buying conviction
Earnings land in about 6 weeks (Nov 17), within the back portion of the 30-day holding window
Catalyst may already be priced in
Fundamental catalyst data was unavailable — thesis rests on price action
Stock remains almost 28% below its 52-week high, which may reflect longer-term structural headwinds rather than a simple dip

⚔ The Skeptic's View — Sage, the Devil's Advocate

OBV is deeply negative at -48.2M even as price rallies 5.49% over 30 days — a textbook bearish volume divergence suggesting the move isn't backed by accumulation, undercutting the 'volume confirmation' claim.
MACD line (-11.27) remains well below zero and below its signal (-28.88) despite the positive histogram, and price is still 28% off its 52-week high and below its 200-day SMA (2856.58) — this is a bounce within a longer downtrend, not a confirmed trend reversal.

Show the detailed analysis

Calibrated probability: 55% (raw model estimate: 62%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.

Trade math

Reward : Risk0.5:1

Breakeven Win Rate65%

Expected Value-0.4%

Suggested Allocation0%

Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.

What each AI analyst estimated

Aria

70%

High

Blaze

56%

Medium

Nova

56%

Medium

Orion

63%

High

Quinn

—

Despite a strong recent bounce, price remains notably below its 200-day moving average, suggesting the longer-term trend is still down and the rally could stall as a bear-market bounce.

Data Sources

Yahoo Finance Finviz MarketWatch Seeking Alpha

#3 TSCO.LTesco PLC

4/5 Agents Agree Risk 4/10 ⚠ Conflicting Signals ⚠ Earnings in Window

Moderate conviction · 55%

Tesco is the UK's largest supermarket chain, selling groceries and general merchandise in stores and online. Its shares have quietly outperformed the slumping FTSE 100, helped by resilient food-retail demand while banks and miners sell off. The big wildcard is that Tesco reports earnings the very day of this review, so a lot can change once those results land.

Stop-loss£466.87-6.7%

Today's price£500.40

Target£525.42+5.0%

If you invested £1,000

▲£1,050 if the target hits (+5.0%)

▼£933 if the stop-loss is hit (-6.7%)

The AI puts the chance of the win case at 55%. Not a guarantee — always set the stop-loss.

Why the AI likes it

30-day return of +5.35% with positive 5-day momentum, beating the FTSE benchmark by about 9.6 percentage points
RSI of 66.4 sits in the healthy strength zone, not yet overbought
MACD line above its signal line with a positive, rising histogram
Price is above both its 50-day and 200-day averages, and the Bollinger Bands are squeezing tight, a pattern that often precedes a breakout move
Share price up 5.35% today on volume more than double its recent average, a strong confirmation signal
5-day and 30-day trends are both positive, and the stock is only about 2% off its 52-week high
Outperforming the broader UK market by roughly 9.6 percentage points over the past month
Up 5.35% over the past 30 days, comfortably beating a falling broader market

What could go wrong

Company reports earnings inside the holding window — a binary event that can gap the stock sharply either way.
Tesco reports earnings the same day as this analysis, which could swing the stock sharply in either direction
Momentum could reverse if the broader market resumes its recent risk-off slide
Grocery margins are thin, so any guidance disappointment could hit the shares hard
Catalyst could not be confirmed — thesis rests on price action
Earnings within holding period — binary event risk
Post-catalyst fade if momentum stalls

⚔ The Skeptic's View — Sage, the Devil's Advocate

OBV sits at -155.6M, deeply negative, directly contradicting the bull narrative of volume-confirmed strength on a day the stock rose 5.35%.
RSI at 66.4 combined with price sitting right at the upper Bollinger Band (491.09) within a 'squeeze' setup means the breakout risk is two-sided — squeezes can resolve down as easily as up, and today's single-day 5.35% spike on 2x volume looks more like a gap than sustained momentum (5-day momentum is only +0.8% once today's pop is excluded from the prior days).

Show the detailed analysis

Calibrated probability: 55% (raw model estimate: 65%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.

Trade math

Reward : Risk0.7:1

Breakeven Win Rate57%

Expected Value+0.9%

Suggested Allocation0%

Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.

What each AI analyst estimated

Aria

80%

Very High

Blaze

—

Reports earnings the very same day as this analysis — far too close to the event to call before the market has even digested the results

Nova

56%

Medium

Orion

61%

High

Quinn

60%

Medium

Data Sources

Yahoo Finance Finviz MarketWatch Seeking Alpha

#4 MKS.LMarks and Spencer Group plc

2/5 Agents Agree Risk 4/10 ⚠ Conflicting Signals ⚠ Earnings in Window

Strong conviction · 61%

Marks & Spencer is a well-known British retailer selling clothing, home goods, and food. Its stock has been on a strong short-term upswing, climbing faster than the overall UK market even as banks and miners fall sharply. The main risk is that this kind of fast move can reverse quickly if shoppers pull back or the market turns risk-off again.

Stop-loss£375.50-5.2%

Today's price£396.10

Target£415.90+5.0%

If you invested £1,000

▲£1,050 if the target hits (+5.0%)

▼£948 if the stop-loss is hit (-5.2%)

The AI puts the chance of the win case at 61%. Not a guarantee — always set the stop-loss.

Why the AI likes it

Up nearly 5% in just the last 5 trading days while the FTSE 100 benchmark fell over the same stretch
RSI of 61 shows healthy strength without being overbought
Positive MACD crossover with a rising histogram
Price above both its 50-day and 200-day averages, with Bollinger Bands tightly squeezed, often a precursor to a bigger move
Bollinger Band squeeze is active while price sits at the upper band, a classic pre-breakout compression
MACD line above its signal line with a positive histogram, and on-balance volume confirming the move
Price trading above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages

What could go wrong

Company reports earnings inside the holding window — a binary event that can gap the stock sharply either way.
A tight squeeze pattern can resolve lower just as easily as higher if sentiment sours
Earnings land in about a month (Nov 4), so a guidance miss before the 30-day window closes could hurt returns
UK consumer spending remains fragile, the biggest swing factor for a retailer like M&S
Bollinger squeezes can resolve to the downside just as easily as the upside
MACD histogram is still modest (+2.9), a relatively weak confirmation signal
ATR-based downside of -5.2% is wider than the 5% target, giving a reward-to-risk ratio just under 1:1

⚔ The Skeptic's View — Sage, the Devil's Advocate

Only 2 of 5 agents agreed on this pick, the weakest consensus of the group, yet it carries the highest stated probability (70%) — a disagreement the thesis doesn't address.
Price (396.1) is already at/above the upper Bollinger Band (394.82) inside the cited 'squeeze,' and 30-day return is a modest +1.9% versus a 5-day pop of +4.9% — most of the move is a single week's spike riding on a squeeze that can break either direction.

Show the detailed analysis

Calibrated probability: 61% (raw model estimate: 70%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.

Trade math

Reward : Risk1.0:1

Breakeven Win Rate51%

Expected Value+1.9%

Suggested Allocation8.5%

Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.

What each AI analyst estimated

Aria

80%

Very High

Blaze

—

Decent technical setup, but an earnings report lands inside the 30-day holding window, and that binary event risk pulls the probability below a comfortable level

Nova

—

Decent one-week bounce, but the overall monthly trend is nearly flat and volume is below average.

Orion

—

A discretionary retailer (cyclical consumer spending), a sector not identified as benefiting from the current defensive/value rotation

Quinn

60%

Medium

Data Sources

Yahoo Finance Finviz MarketWatch Seeking Alpha

#5 SHEL.LShell plc

2/5 Agents Agree Risk 5/10 ⚠ Conflicting Signals ⚠ Earnings in Window

Moderate conviction · 55%

Shell is one of the world's largest oil and gas companies. While most of the London market has been selling off sharply over the past month, energy stocks like Shell have been a rare bright spot, trending higher and sitting right near their highest price in a year. The main risk is that oil-linked stocks can swing hard on world events, and an earnings update due later this month could move the price sharply in either direction.

Stop-loss£3,557.45-5.9%

Today's price£3,780.50

Target£3,969.52+5.0%

If you invested £1,000

▲£1,050 if the target hits (+5.0%)

▼£941 if the stop-loss is hit (-5.9%)

The AI puts the chance of the win case at 55%. Not a guarantee — always set the stop-loss.

Why the AI likes it

Up roughly 8% over the past 30 days versus a ~-4% fall in the broader FTSE benchmark over the same period
Trading essentially at its 30-day high and within a fraction of a percent of its 52-week high
Energy is one of the sectors explicitly showing a genuine defensive/value rotation tailwind while cyclicals and banks sell off
Positive 5-day momentum (+1.6%) confirming the uptrend is still intact
30-day return of +8.0%, outperforming the FTSE benchmark by roughly 12 percentage points
MACD line sits above its signal line with a positive, widening histogram (bullish crossover)
Price is trading above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with on-balance volume confirming the advance rather than diverging from it

What could go wrong

Company reports earnings inside the holding window — a binary event that can gap the stock sharply either way.
Macro regime could shift before target is reached
Sector rotation can reverse quickly on macro data surprises
An earnings update is due on 2026-10-29, inside the 30-day holding window, which could cause a sharp price swing
Technical readings show the stock as overbought, which raises the chance of a short-term pullback
RSI14 at 71.3 is approaching overbought territory, raising short-term reversal risk
No Bollinger squeeze is present, so there's no coiled-volatility setup underpinning further acceleration

⚔ The Skeptic's View — Sage, the Devil's Advocate

RSI at 71.3 is in overbought territory, not merely 'strong momentum' — this is the most stretched reading of any pick in the group and raises pullback risk right as the stock sits within 0.09% of its 52-week high.
Only 2 of 5 agents agreed on this pick despite the 68% stated probability, and the +8% 30-day move is largely a single-day 8% jump (today's ChangePercent) rather than a steady grind, making the 'intact uptrend' framing fragile.

Show the detailed analysis

Calibrated probability: 55% (raw model estimate: 68%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.

Trade math

Reward : Risk0.8:1

Breakeven Win Rate54%

Expected Value+1.5%

Suggested Allocation8.5%

Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.

What each AI analyst estimated

Aria

—

Passed the momentum screen but RSI of 71 is already stretched into overbought territory, a less attractive entry than the top picks.

Blaze

—

Strong momentum and a solid earnings-beat record, but its earnings report falls inside the 30-day window (binary event risk) and it is already trading near its 52-week high after an 8% run

Nova

—

Strong momentum and near its 52-week high, but trading volume was below average and earnings arrive in 21 days, adding binary-event risk right inside the holding window.

Orion

76%

Very High

Quinn

60%

Medium

Data Sources

Yahoo Finance Finviz MarketWatch Seeking Alpha

Retail Investor Execution Guide

This report identifies stocks with an AI-assessed probability of gaining +5% within 30 calendar days (target exit by November 7, 2026). Picks are ranked by how many independent AI agents agreed — more agreement means higher conviction. The guide below tells you exactly how to act on them.

Step-by-Step Action Plan

Act within one trading day. Prices are freshest now. The longer you wait, the more the entry price drifts away from what the agents analysed.
Verify the entry price. Check the live price before buying. If a stock has already moved more than 3% above the Current Price shown in the report, skip it or wait for a pullback — the risk/reward has shifted.
Use limit orders, not market orders. Set your buy limit at or below the Current Price shown. Chasing with a market order gives brokers and algorithms an advantage over you.
Set your stop-loss immediately after buying. Use the Max Downside % on each pick card as your hard exit level. If the price falls to that level, sell without hesitation — the trade thesis is broken.
Set a take-profit at the Target Price. Place a limit sell order at the Target Price shown. When it fills, the trade is done — resist the urge to hold for more.
Exit all positions by November 7, 2026. This is your hard deadline. If a stock has not hit its target by then, exit anyway. Holding past the window turns a short-term trade into an unsupervised long-term position.
Never add to a losing position. If your stop-loss is hit, exit completely. Averaging down turns a small, controlled loss into a potentially large one.

Position Sizing by Conviction Tier

Size each position according to the coloured border on its pick card. Cap your total exposure across all picks from this report at 25% of your overall trading budget.

Agents Agreeing	What It Means	Max Allocation Per Pick
5/5	Highest conviction — all five independent analytical checks passed	Up to 10%
4/5	Very high conviction — four of five independent checks aligned	Up to 8%
3/5	High conviction — three agents independently agreed	Up to 6%
2/5	Moderate conviction — two agents independently agreed	Up to 4%
1 Agent	Speculative — solo pick, admitted only at Very High confidence	Up to 2%

The Three Exit Rules

Stop-loss hit — exit the moment the price falls to the Max Downside % shown on the pick card. Apply this rule without exception.
Target hit — sell when the stock reaches its Target Price. You may choose to sell half and trail the remainder, but always lock in at least some profit.
Time's up — close all positions by November 7, 2026. The agents built their thesis around a 30-day window; beyond that, the original analysis no longer applies.

These picks are generated by AI agents for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Probability estimates reflect the agents' analytical models — they are not guarantees of any outcome. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Markets can and do move against even well-researched trades. Always conduct your own research, and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before placing any orders. Never invest money you cannot afford to lose.

Understanding the Numbers

A plain-English guide to every figure shown on each pick card — what it means, how it is calculated, and what a good or bad value looks like.

AI Conviction Meter

Estimated probability of hitting the target, shown as a 5-bar gauge

The filled bars and label translate the AI's probability estimate into plain language: 75%+ is Very strong, 60–74% Strong, 50–59% Moderate, below 50% Cautious. Where enough past picks have been resolved, the probability is calibrated against the AI's real track record.

e.g. "Moderate conviction · 58%" — the AI thinks this trade works slightly more often than a coin flip.

✓ More filled bars = more confidence — but even Very strong picks fail sometimes; always size positions accordingly.

If You Invested $1,000

$1,000 × (1 + Target Gain ÷ 100) / $1,000 × (1 + Max Downside ÷ 100)

The same Target Gain and Max Downside percentages expressed in concrete money terms for a $1,000 position — what you'd have if the target hits versus if your stop-loss is triggered.

e.g. +10% target and −12.3% stop → $1,100 on a win, $877 on a stopped-out loss.

✓ Scales linearly — a $500 position sees half these amounts, a $2,000 position double.

Current Price

Market price at time of analysis

The stock's price when this report was generated. All other figures on the card are calculated from this reference point.

e.g. $215.20 — check the live price before placing an order; if it has moved more than ~3%, re-evaluate the risk/reward.

✓ No positive/negative distinction — it is simply your cost basis.

Target Price

Current Price × (1 + Target Gain ÷ 100)

The price the agents project the stock could reach within the time window. This is your take-profit level — place a limit sell order here after buying.

e.g. $215.20 × 1.085 = $233.49 target on an 8.5% pick.

✓ Always above Current Price — this tool only selects upside candidates.

Target Gain

(Target Price − Current Price) ÷ Current Price × 100

The percentage return you would earn if the stock hits its Target Price from your entry. Set by the run parameters — every pick in this report targets the same percentage.

e.g. +8.5% means a $100 stock has a $108.50 target; a $500 stock has a $542.50 target.

✓ Always positive — picks are upside-only. A larger % means a bigger move is required.

Max Downside

Estimated stop-loss level, as % below entry

The worst-case loss the agents estimated if the thesis fails — based on key support levels and recent volatility. Use this as your hard stop-loss. If the price falls to this level, exit immediately; the trade thesis is broken.

e.g. −12.0% means: if you bought at $100, sell if it drops to $88.00.

⚠ Always negative. A smaller magnitude (e.g. −5%) = tighter risk. A larger magnitude (e.g. −20%) = more room to fall before you exit — riskier.

Reward : Risk

Target Gain ÷ |Max Downside|

How much you could gain for every dollar you are risking. A ratio of 2.0:1 means you stand to make $2 for every $1 at risk. Higher is better.

e.g. 8.5% gain ÷ 12% downside = 0.7:1 (unfavourable). 10% gain ÷ 5% downside = 2.0:1 (good).

✓ ≥ 2.0:1 is strong. ⚠ < 1.0:1 means you are risking more than you could gain — approach with caution.

Breakeven Win Rate

|Max Downside| ÷ (Target Gain + |Max Downside|) × 100

The minimum percentage of trades at this reward:risk that must succeed for you to break even over time — regardless of how good your stock picking is.

e.g. 12 ÷ (8.5 + 12) = 59% — you need roughly 6 in 10 trades to win just to avoid losing money.

✓ Lower is better — ≤ 35% means even a poor win rate is survivable. ⚠ ≥ 55% means you need most trades to work out.

Expected Value

(Probability% × Target Gain%) + ((1 − Probability%) × Max Downside%)

The average return per trade if the AI's probability estimate is accurate over many similar trades. A positive Expected Value means the trade has a mathematical edge; a negative value means the math works against you on average, even if you sometimes win.

e.g. 65% × +8.5% + 35% × −12% = +1.3% EV. Over 100 similar trades you would expect an average gain of 1.3% per trade.

✓ Positive = edge in your favour over many trades. ⚠ Negative = the math loses money on average — even if individual wins feel good. Note: EV is only as reliable as the probability estimate.

Suggested Allocation

half-Kelly: (Probability ÷ |Max Downside| − (1 − Probability) ÷ Target Gain) ÷ 2, capped at 10%

The Kelly criterion computes the portfolio fraction that maximises long-run growth for a bet with these odds; half-Kelly is the standard hedge against the probability estimate being too optimistic. Uses the calibrated probability where available. 0% means the math sees no edge worth sizing; — means it couldn't be computed.

e.g. 57% probability, +10% target, −13% downside → Kelly ≈ 8.5% of portfolio, half-Kelly ≈ 4.2%.

Generic sizing guidance only — not personal investment advice. Position sizing must reflect your own portfolio, risk tolerance and circumstances.

Every stock Scout considered — and why each was discarded

Scout scanned 100 FTSE 100 constituents and short-listed 25 candidates for deep analysis by the five analysts. Here is what happened to each one.

SHEL.LShell plcPicked #5
Scout: Trading essentially at its 52-week high with strong 5-day and 30-day gains, the clearest momentum/trend alignment in the index.
Made the final report at #5.
BP.LBP p.l.c.Already held
Scout: Only ~4% off its 52-week high with consistent 5-day and 30-day gains, confirming sector-wide energy strength.
Already held: a position opened 2026-10-02 runs until 2026-11-01 (24 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
TSCO.LTesco PLCPicked #3
Scout: Near its 52-week high with matching strong 5-day and 30-day returns, defensive grocery demand holding up.
Made the final report at #3.
DPLM.LDiploma PLCAlready held
Scout: Only ~3% from its 52-week high with an 8% 30-day gain, a steady industrial compounder in an uptrend.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-28 runs until 2026-10-28 (21 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
SMT.LScottish Mortgage OrdDropped at merge
Scout: Within 2% of its 52-week high with strong 30-day and 5-day gains as growth/tech names regain favor.
Only Quinn selected this stock — Quinn solo picks require High or Very High confidence and at least 60% probability (this pick: Medium, 60% raw (55% after calibration)).
PSON.LPearson plcAlready held
Scout: 9% 30-day gain and positive 5-day momentum keep it close to its highs, a steady uptrend candidate.
Already held: a position opened 2026-10-06 runs until 2026-11-05 (28 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
ALW.LAlliance Witan OrdAlready held
Scout: Trading under 1% from its 52-week high with consistent small positive gains across both windows.
Already held: a position opened 2026-10-02 runs until 2026-11-01 (24 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
BNZL.LBunzl plcPassed over
Scout: Strong 5-day pop plus positive 30-day trend keeps this distribution name near its highs.
Aria: Technicals look decent, but trading volume is diverging from the price rise, suggesting the gain isn't fully confirmed by buying conviction.
Blaze: Reasonable value-entry setup, but trading volume is diverging negatively from the price rally, a caution flag on how much buying conviction is really behind it
Nova: Price has risen but the underlying buying/selling volume trend is actually diverging against the price gain, a warning sign the rally isn't well supported.
Orion: Steady-industrial tailwind and near its monthly high, but trading volume shows a bearish divergence (price rising while buying volume isn't confirming it)
Quinn: On-balance volume is diverging from price, meaning trading volume isn't confirming the recent advance — a sign of possible distribution despite the stock trading near its highs.
MKS.LMarks and Spencer Group plcPicked #4
Scout: Only ~5% off its 52-week high with accelerating 5-day momentum on top of a positive monthly trend.
Made the final report at #4.
CRDA.LCroda International PlcLiquidity filter
Scout: Just 5% from its 52-week high with improving 5-day momentum, specialty chemicals demand stabilizing.
20-day average daily volume 493,908 shares is below the 500,000-share liquidity floor.
HLN.LHaleon plcPassed over
Scout: Strong 5-day acceleration (+5%) layered on a positive monthly trend as consumer-health demand stays resilient.
Aria: 5-day momentum turned slightly negative despite a positive 30-day return, failing the momentum screen.
Blaze: 5-day momentum has turned negative and the trend indicator has flipped bearish, contradicting the longer 30-day gain
Nova: The 5-day price trend has turned slightly negative, meaning the stock is losing steam rather than gaining it.
Orion: Consumer-health/staples tailwind exists, but recent 5-day momentum is negative and trend indicators are weakening
Quinn: 5-day momentum has turned negative and price sits below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, pointing to underlying weakness despite a brief bounce.
IMB.LImperial Brands PLCPicked #2
Scout: Best 5-day momentum in the tobacco group (+7.8%) riding a multi-week uptrend, despite being well off its high.
Made the final report at #2.
BATS.LBritish American Tobacco p.l.c.Passed over
Scout: Consistent 5-day and 30-day gains show the tobacco rotation extending across the sector, not just one name.
Aria: 5-day momentum turned negative and trading volume is diverging from price, failing the momentum screen.
Blaze: 5-day momentum is negative with a bearish trend crossover forming, despite the broader tobacco-sector rotation story
Nova: Momentum has turned negative over the past five days and trend indicators are tilting bearish.
Orion: Tobacco sector tailwind exists, but the stock's own 5-day momentum has turned negative and its trend indicator has flipped slightly bearish, a mixed signal
Quinn: MACD histogram has turned negative, 5-day momentum is negative, price is below both moving averages, and volume isn't confirming the move — a cluster of bearish technical signals.
SGE.LThe Sage Group plcPicked #1
Scout: Nearly 5% 5-day pop confirms renewed buying interest in this software name after a flat month.
Made the final report at #1.
CPG.LCompass Group PLCDropped at merge
Scout: Strong 5-day acceleration on top of positive 30-day trend, catering demand proving resilient.
Only Blaze selected this stock — single-agent picks require Very High confidence and at least 70% probability (this pick: Medium, 56% raw (48% after calibration)).
UU.LUnited Utilities Group PLCAlready held
Scout: Only ~5% from its 52-week high with a 6.5% monthly gain, defensive utility demand in favor.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-30 runs until 2026-10-30 (22 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
SVT.LSevern Trent PLCAlready held
Scout: Within 7% of its 52-week high with a 5.6% monthly gain, mirroring utility-sector strength.
Already held: a position opened 2026-10-06 runs until 2026-11-05 (28 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
PCT.LPolar Capital Technology OrdAlready held
Scout: Nearly 7% 30-day gain with positive 5-day follow-through, tech-trust momentum building.
Already held: a position opened 2026-10-02 runs until 2026-11-01 (24 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
CCC.LComputacenter plcLiquidity filter
Scout: 6.2% monthly gain within 9% of its 52-week high, IT services demand holding up well.
20-day average daily volume 324,248 shares is below the 500,000-share liquidity floor.
KGF.LKingfisher plcAlready held
Scout: Strongest 30-day gain in the retail group (+8.5%); the small 5-day pullback looks like a pause within an established uptrend.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-23 runs until 2026-10-23 (15 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
JD.LJD Sports Fashion PlcPassed over
Scout: Aligned positive 5-day and 30-day gains show renewed buying interest in this retailer.
Aria: Qualifies on momentum, but price is sitting right at its 50-day average with no confirmed uptrend structure, a less convincing setup than the top picks.
Blaze: Price momentum looks positive, but trading-volume flow is sharply negative, suggesting the rally isn't being confirmed by real buying volume
Nova: Share price is up over the month, but trading volume is well below its average, suggesting the move lacks strong buyer conviction.
Orion: A discretionary sportswear retailer, which falls outside the defensive sectors currently in favor
Quinn: Price sits almost exactly at its 50-day moving average rather than clearly above it, and the volatility-based stop distance is wide relative to the 5% target, giving a weak reward-to-risk ratio.
ITRK.LIntertek Group plcPassed over
Scout: Trading right at its 52-week high, a stable testing/inspection business showing no signs of the broader selloff.
Nova: The stock is essentially flat with unusually low trading volume, showing no sign of a fresh move.
BEZ.LBeazley plcPassed over
Scout: Essentially at its 52-week high, insulated from the sharp insurer/financials weakness seen elsewhere in the index.
Aria: RSI near 80 is firmly overbought and 5-day momentum is almost flat, pushing its probability down to the bare floor - too marginal to include.
Nova: Price has barely moved and the RSI shows the stock is overbought, a combination that leaves little room to the upside.
Orion: An insurer, part of the financials group that has been hit hardest in the recent broad FTSE sell-off, so it doesn't align with the current defensive rotation
Quinn: RSI14 is at 79.6, deep into overbought territory, while the MACD histogram has just turned negative — a classic exhaustion signal rather than a fresh breakout.
SDR.LSchroders plcAlready held
Scout: Under 2% from its 52-week high, an asset manager that has avoided the sector-wide drawdown.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-09 runs until 2026-10-09 (1 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
DCC.LDCC Energy plcAlready held
Scout: Only 4% off its 52-week high with steady positive gains across both windows, energy distribution staying resilient.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-25 runs until 2026-10-25 (17 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.

Agent Analytical Approaches

Aria

Momentum & Technical

Checks 30-day price history for every candidate before making any selection. Requires positive period return and positive 5-day momentum as mandatory gates. Ranks picks by proximity to their period high and adjusts probability based on volume. Uses news only to rule out major negative catalysts.

Blaze

Fundamental & Earnings

Searches earnings results, analyst upgrades, and revenue trends before checking price data. Requires at least one verifiable fundamental catalyst — earnings beat, analyst upgrade, or revenue acceleration — within the last 60 days. Favours stocks with strong fundamentals trading below recent highs (value entry).

Nova

News Catalyst & Event-Driven

Hunts for specific events within the last 21 days: FDA approvals, major contract wins, product launches, earnings surprises, or significant analyst upgrades. Requires a positive price reaction confirming the market is recognising the catalyst. Also scans for upcoming events that could drive further gains.

Orion

Macro & Sector Rotation

Maps the macroeconomic regime (risk-on / risk-off / neutral) and identifies sectors benefiting from current conditions before looking at individual stocks. Only selects stocks from macro-aligned sectors with confirmed sector tailwinds. Adjusts for interest rate sensitivity and geopolitical factors.

Sage

Devil's Advocate

Reviews the final picks after all four analysts agree and actively challenges each bull thesis. Searches for bearish technical signals, negative news, insider selling, and elevated short interest that the agreeing agents may have underweighted. Produces evidence-based counter-arguments shown on each pick card.

Quinn

Quantitative / Statistical

Pure-quant analyst: no news, no narrative, only numbers. Identifies mean-reversion setups from RSI extremes (<35) with momentum turning, Bollinger squeeze breakouts, and multi-factor quant scores using RSI, MACD, OBV, short interest, and insider transaction data. Counterbalances narrative bias across the four analyst agents.