StockPicker Report — FTSE 100

Today's Market Mood

Neutral Normal choppiness · VIX 15.6

The FTSE 100 is in a broad 30-day pullback, with financials, miners, insurers, gambling and travel-leisure names down sharply (IG Group -27%, Entain -20%, Rentokil -16%, Experian -15%, Fresnillo -12%), while a narrower set of housebuilders, utilities, investment trusts and quality industrials buck the trend with positive 5-day and 30-day returns while sitting close to their 52-week highs. Given the breadth of the drawdown, the selection below leans toward these relative-strength pockets rather than oversold bounce plays.

Broad FTSE 100 correction with narrow pockets of relative strengthHousebuilders and rate-sensitive utilities showing renewed upward momentum, likely on rate-cut expectationsQuality compounders and investment/technology trusts (Scottish Mortgage, Polar Capital Technology, Diploma, Smiths Group) holding within low single digits of 52-week highs despite the wider sell-offEnergy majors and diversified distributors showing steadier trends than the cyclical/financial complex

Today's Actionable List

Which of today's picks to actually take, and at what size, given what you are already holding. Each pick's own Suggested Allocation sizes it in isolation; this table applies the portfolio limits — at most 20 open positions and 60% of the portfolio committed in total. Run with --capital 25000 to see these sizes as order amounts rather than percentages.

Take today0 of 5

New exposure0%

Already open49 · 165.3%

Total after today165.3% / 60%

Slots left0 of 20

Rank	Stock	Action	Size	Entry → Target	Notes
#1	PCT.L	SKIP	—	£711.50 → £747.08 stop £649.60	Half-Kelly sizes this at 0% — the odds carry no edge worth capital.
#2	PSN.L	SKIP	—	£1,237.50 → £1,299.38 stop £1,113.75	Half-Kelly sizes this at 0% — the odds carry no edge worth capital.
#3	WTB.L	SKIP	—	£2,440.00 → £2,562.00 stop £2,281.40	Half-Kelly sizes this at 0% — the odds carry no edge worth capital.
#4	BP.L	SKIP	—	£557.80 → £585.70 stop £514.29	Half-Kelly sizes this at 0% — the odds carry no edge worth capital.
#5	ALW.L	SKIP	—	£1,387.00 → £1,456.36 stop £1,324.58	Position cap reached — 49 of 20 slots in use.

Already open: BIIB (to Oct 3), DE (to Oct 3), ITRK.L (to Oct 8), SDR.L (to Oct 9), VOD.L (to Oct 9), TSLA (to Oct 9), HCA (to Oct 11), SHEL.L (to Oct 14), TSCO.L (to Oct 14), WMT (to Oct 14), BBY (to Oct 15), PM (to Oct 16) … and 37 more. Symbols you already hold were excluded from this run's candidates rather than re-picked.

Position-sizing guidance only — half-Kelly per pick, bounded by the limits above. Not personal investment advice.

Behind the scenes: how each AI analyst did

Aria

6 picks

Blaze

3 picks

Nova

3 picks

Orion

3 picks

Quinn

3 picks

5 Stock Picks

#1 PCT.LPolar Capital Technology Trust plc

5/5 Agents Agree Risk 5/10 ⚠ Conflicting Signals

Moderate conviction · 55%

Polar Capital Technology Trust is a fund that invests in a basket of global technology companies, giving investors broad tech exposure without picking individual stocks. The share price has climbed steadily over the last month and is beating the wider UK market by a wide margin, with healthy underlying momentum. The main risk is that tech-focused funds can swing sharply if risk appetite fades, since this one is driven mostly by global tech sentiment rather than UK-specific news.

Stop-loss£649.60-8.7%

Today's price£711.50

Target£747.08+5.0%

If you invested £1,000

▲£1,050 if the target hits (+5.0%)

▼£913 if the stop-loss is hit (-8.7%)

The AI puts the chance of the win case at 55%. Not a guarantee — always set the stop-loss.

Why the AI likes it

Strong 30-day momentum: +12.4% versus the broader UK index's -3.5%, a relative-strength edge of nearly 16 points
RSI at 66 shows healthy strength without being overbought
MACD is bullish (line above signal, rising histogram) and price sits above both its 50-day and 200-day averages
Strong 30-day price momentum (+12.4%), sharply outperforming the broader UK market (+15.9% relative strength)
Trading above both its 50-day and 200-day averages in a clean uptrend with no overbought extreme (RSI 65.7)
Sits 7.8% below its 52-week high, leaving room before the prior ceiling
Up 12.4% over 30 days versus a -3.5% decline in the broader market, a 15.9% outperformance gap
Trading only 7.8% below its 52-week high with a bullish MACD crossover

What could go wrong

Momentum could reverse quickly if global tech sentiment turns, since returns are driven by overseas tech holdings rather than UK fundamentals
No specific catalyst data was available to confirm there isn't a near-term negative event
A broad market-wide risk-off move would likely drag this down along with growth stocks generally
Fundamental catalyst data was unavailable — thesis rests on price action
Catalyst may already be priced in
No company-specific news could be verified, so the move lacks a confirmed fundamental driver

⚔ The Skeptic's View — Sage, the Devil's Advocate

The entire 30-day return (+12.4%) was generated by a single-day price jump from 633.0 to 711.5, while the trailing 5-day momentum is just +0.91% — the 'strong trend' is really one gap, not sustained buying, raising reversal risk.
Price (711.5) is already pressing the upper Bollinger Band (719.64), leaving almost no technical room before mean-reversion resistance despite the bull case citing 7.8% headroom to the 52-week high.

Show the detailed analysis

Calibrated probability: 55% (raw model estimate: 61%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.

Trade math

Reward : Risk0.6:1

Breakeven Win Rate64%

Expected Value-0.3%

Suggested Allocation0%

Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.

What each AI analyst estimated

Aria

75%

Very High

Blaze

56%

Medium

Nova

53%

Medium

Orion

61%

High

Quinn

60%

Medium

Data Sources

Yahoo Finance Finviz MarketWatch Seeking Alpha

#2 PSN.LPersimmon Plc

4/5 Agents Agree Risk 5/10

Moderate conviction · 55%

Persimmon is one of the UK's largest homebuilders. The stock has jumped sharply in the past week, likely on renewed optimism about the housing market, and is beating the broader index comfortably. The main risk is that this is a fast, possibly overheated move: the trading-volume pattern doesn't fully back up the rally, and housebuilders are very sensitive to interest-rate news.

Stop-loss£1,113.75-10.0%

Today's price£1,237.50

Target£1,299.38+5.0%

If you invested £1,000

▲£1,050 if the target hits (+5.0%)

▼£900 if the stop-loss is hit (-10.0%)

The AI puts the chance of the win case at 55%. Not a guarantee — always set the stop-loss.

Why the AI likes it

Sharp +7.2% move over the last 5 days, well ahead of the broader market's -3.5% decline
RSI at 57 and a strong bullish MACD histogram confirm the recent surge has momentum
Comfortably beating the index on a relative-strength basis
Very strong recent momentum: +10.7% over the last 5 days and +8.7% over 30 days
Outperforming the broader market by +12.2% over the period
Still 20% below its 52-week high, a meaningful value-entry gap versus its own recent range
RSI at 56.7 shows room to run before becoming overbought
Share price up 7.2% in the last five trading days alone, the strongest short-term momentum among candidates reviewed

What could go wrong

This is a very fast, sharp move, and the trading-volume pattern (declining on-balance volume) doesn't fully confirm genuine buying conviction, raising the risk of a quick reversal
Housebuilders are highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations, so any rate-related news could reverse the move fast
The 50-day average is still below the 200-day average, meaning the longer-term trend hasn't fully turned positive yet
Fundamental catalyst data was unavailable — thesis rests on price action
Catalyst may already be priced in
Underlying trading-volume flow is not fully confirming the price rally

⚔ The Skeptic's View — Sage, the Devil's Advocate

On Balance Volume is sharply negative (-34,041,044) even as price rallied 8.74%, a textbook bearish volume/price divergence suggesting the move isn't backed by accumulation.
Price (1237.5) is still below its own 200-day average (1201.00 is actually below, but it's barely above — and well under the 52-week high by 20.26%), meaning the 'uptrend' sits inside a much larger downtrend/range, not a confirmed breakout.

Show the detailed analysis

Calibrated probability: 55% (raw model estimate: 61%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.

Trade math

Reward : Risk0.5:1

Breakeven Win Rate67%

Expected Value-0.9%

Suggested Allocation0%

Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.

What each AI analyst estimated

Aria

70%

High

Blaze

56%

Medium

Nova

53%

Medium

Orion

—

Almost all of its 30-day gain came from a single sharp jump while trading-volume flow was actually falling (a bearish warning sign), and the stock remains far from its 52-week high despite housebuilders being framed as a strong pocket.

Quinn

63%

High

Data Sources

Yahoo Finance Finviz MarketWatch Seeking Alpha

#3 WTB.LWhitbread plc

3/5 Agents Agree Risk 4/10 ⚠ Conflicting Signals ⚠ Earnings in Window

Moderate conviction · 55%

Whitbread owns the Premier Inn hotel chain across the UK and Germany. The shares have bounced strongly over the past week and are showing solid technical momentum even though they remain well below their 52-week high. The main risk is that the company reports earnings within this 30-day window, which could swing the price sharply in either direction.

Stop-loss£2,281.40-6.5%

Today's price£2,440.00

Target£2,562.00+5.0%

If you invested £1,000

▲£1,050 if the target hits (+5.0%)

▼£935 if the stop-loss is hit (-6.5%)

The AI puts the chance of the win case at 55%. Not a guarantee — always set the stop-loss.

Why the AI likes it

Strong 5-day bounce of +2.65% while outperforming the index over 30 days
RSI at 63 and a bullish MACD setup, with Bollinger Bands tightening ahead of a possible breakout
Still well below its 52-week high, leaving room for a continued recovery
Up almost 4% over the last five trading days on volume roughly 50% above its 30-day average — a real sign of fresh buying
Earnings due in 13 days could act as a secondary catalyst within the 30-day window
MACD histogram is strongly positive and Bollinger Bands are tightening, often a precursor to a breakout
MACD histogram strongly positive (14.33) with a bullish line-over-signal crossover
Bollinger Band squeeze detected alongside a push to a fresh 23-day high

What could go wrong

Company reports earnings inside the holding window — a binary event that can gap the stock sharply either way.
Earnings are due within the 30-day window (around October 15), which could cause a sharp price swing either way
Longer-term moving averages (50-day vs 200-day) are still slightly bearish, so this looks like a shorter-term bounce rather than an established uptrend
Momentum could reverse quickly if the earnings report disappoints
Catalyst could not be confirmed — thesis rests on price action
Earnings within holding period — binary event risk
Travel/leisure names have been under broad pressure in the current FTSE pullback

⚔ The Skeptic's View — Sage, the Devil's Advocate

Price (2440.0) is still below its 200-day average (2467.50) and only marginally above its 50-day (2421.36), meaning the MACD bullishness referenced is a short-term signal generated well inside a longer-term downtrend (-26.1% off the 52-week high).
OBV is deeply negative (-31,195,863) despite the bounce, and the MACD line itself remains negative (-2.57) — the 'bullish crossover' is a signal crossing less-negative territory, not genuine positive momentum.

Show the detailed analysis

Calibrated probability: 55% (raw model estimate: 66%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.

Trade math

Reward : Risk0.8:1

Breakeven Win Rate57%

Expected Value+1.1%

Suggested Allocation0%

Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.

What each AI analyst estimated

Aria

75%

Very High

Blaze

—

Earnings fall inside the 30-day window, adding binary-event risk, and the price sits slightly below its 200-day average, making the trend less convincingly constructive

Nova

56%

Medium

Orion

—

Travel and leisure names are called out as among the hardest-hit sectors in this pullback, so the sector itself doesn't clear the bar despite Whitbread's decent recent price action.

Quinn

63%

High

Data Sources

Yahoo Finance Finviz MarketWatch Seeking Alpha

#4 BP.LBP p.l.c.

2/5 Agents Agree Risk 6/10 ⚠ Earnings in Window

Moderate conviction · 55%

BP is one of the world's largest oil and gas companies. The stock has been gradually climbing and sits above its key moving averages, with its trading range tightening in a way that often precedes a bigger move. The main risks are a volume signal suggesting the recent rally isn't fully backed by buying conviction, and the fact that BP reports earnings before this 30-day window closes, which could cause a sharp swing in either direction.

Stop-loss£514.29-7.8%

Today's price£557.80

Target£585.70+5.0%

If you invested £1,000

▲£1,050 if the target hits (+5.0%)

▼£922 if the stop-loss is hit (-7.8%)

The AI puts the chance of the win case at 55%. Not a guarantee — always set the stop-loss.

Why the AI likes it

Price above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a tightening trading range that often precedes a breakout
RSI at 53 leaves plenty of room to run before becoming overbought
Outperforming the broader index by over 6 points over the past month
Strong earnings track record: beat expectations in 3 of its last 4 reports, most recently by about 12%
Shares are in an uptrend above both key moving averages and 8.5% below the 52-week high
Outperforming the broader UK market by about 6.3% over the past month

What could go wrong

Company reports earnings inside the holding window — a binary event that can gap the stock sharply either way.
A volume divergence signal suggests the recent price strength isn't fully backed by matching buying volume, a caution flag
BP reports earnings around October 30, which falls inside this 30-day window and could cause a sharp move either way
Oil and gas stocks are exposed to swings in crude prices and broader energy-sector sentiment outside company control
Earnings within the holding period — binary event risk
Fundamental catalyst data was unavailable — thesis rests on price action
Catalyst may already be priced in

⚔ The Skeptic's View — Sage, the Devil's Advocate

An OBV divergence is explicitly flagged as true, meaning volume flow is not confirming the price advance even as bulls cite the moving-average uptrend.
MACD histogram is negative (-1.58, line below signal), directly contradicting the bull framing of 'plenty of room to run' — momentum is already decelerating, not accelerating.

Show the detailed analysis

Calibrated probability: 55% (raw model estimate: 62%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.

Trade math

Reward : Risk0.6:1

Breakeven Win Rate61%

Expected Value+0.1%

Suggested Allocation0%

Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.

What each AI analyst estimated

Aria

65%

High

Blaze

59%

Medium

Nova

—

5-day return is slightly negative and volume is below average, showing no sign of a fresh positive move despite being up over the month.

Orion

—

Energy isn't among the sectors confirmed to be holding up against the current FTSE pullback, so there's no sector-level support for a near-term move even though BP's own chart looks stable.

Quinn

—

On-balance volume divergence and a negative MACD histogram point to selling pressure undermining the recent bounce.

Data Sources

Yahoo Finance Finviz MarketWatch Seeking Alpha

#5 ALW.LAlliance Witan Plc

2/5 Agents Agree Risk 4/10

Moderate conviction · 55%

Alliance Witan is a large, long-established investment trust that holds a diversified portfolio of global shares, giving investors broad market exposure in one holding. It has quietly climbed to a 52-week high while comfortably outpacing the wider UK market, and it is one of the steadiest, lowest-risk names in this group. The main risk is that a broad market downturn could still drag it lower even though it has held up better than most.

Stop-loss£1,324.59-4.5%

Today's price£1,387.00

Target£1,456.36+5.0%

Agents estimate: £1,456.38 (+0.0% vs target)

If you invested £1,000

▲£1,050 if the target hits (+5.0%)

▼£955 if the stop-loss is hit (-4.5%)

The AI puts the chance of the win case at 55%. Not a guarantee — always set the stop-loss.

Why the AI likes it

Outperforming the UK market by over 5 points over the past month while sitting at a 52-week high
RSI near 59 and a bullish MACD crossover show steady, healthy momentum
Price trading above both 50-day and 200-day averages, with the lowest volatility-based risk in the group
Trading almost exactly at its 52-week high, with price sitting at the top of its 30-day range
Outperforming the broader UK market by over 5.5 percentage points on relative strength
Steady, low-volatility uptrend (RSI 58.5, no overbought extreme) rather than a one-day spike

What could go wrong

Momentum could stall or reverse if the broader market downturn deepens
As a globally diversified trust, a sudden swing in overseas markets or currency could offset UK-specific strength
No recent news was available to confirm there isn't a hidden negative catalyst
Macro regime could shift before target is reached
Sector rotation can reverse quickly on macro data surprises
As a broadly diversified trust, its near-term path leans heavily on overall global market direction

⚔ The Skeptic's View — Sage, the Devil's Advocate

Both 5-day momentum (+0.07%) and 30-day return (+2.06%) are tepid — the 'steady low-volatility uptrend' claim is really near-flat price action, and at 0.5% off a 52-week high there's essentially no margin for a pullback before testing that ceiling again.

Show the detailed analysis

Calibrated probability: 55% (raw model estimate: 68%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.

Trade math

Reward : Risk1.1:1

Breakeven Win Rate47%

Expected Value+2.0%

Suggested Allocation8.5%

Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.

What each AI analyst estimated

Aria

75%

Very High

Blaze

—

Trend is positive but mild and the shares are already within half a percent of their 52-week high, leaving little value-entry room

Nova

—

Very weak recent momentum (5-day move of just +0.2%) — doesn't look like a fresh, catalyst-driven move.

Orion

61%

High

Quinn

—

Momentum is present but very weak (30-day return only +2.1%, 5-day momentum near flat), offering little conviction for a 5% move.

Data Sources

Yahoo Finance Finviz MarketWatch Seeking Alpha

Retail Investor Execution Guide

This report identifies stocks with an AI-assessed probability of gaining +5% within 30 calendar days (target exit by November 1, 2026). Picks are ranked by how many independent AI agents agreed — more agreement means higher conviction. The guide below tells you exactly how to act on them.

Step-by-Step Action Plan

Act within one trading day. Prices are freshest now. The longer you wait, the more the entry price drifts away from what the agents analysed.
Verify the entry price. Check the live price before buying. If a stock has already moved more than 3% above the Current Price shown in the report, skip it or wait for a pullback — the risk/reward has shifted.
Use limit orders, not market orders. Set your buy limit at or below the Current Price shown. Chasing with a market order gives brokers and algorithms an advantage over you.
Set your stop-loss immediately after buying. Use the Max Downside % on each pick card as your hard exit level. If the price falls to that level, sell without hesitation — the trade thesis is broken.
Set a take-profit at the Target Price. Place a limit sell order at the Target Price shown. When it fills, the trade is done — resist the urge to hold for more.
Exit all positions by November 1, 2026. This is your hard deadline. If a stock has not hit its target by then, exit anyway. Holding past the window turns a short-term trade into an unsupervised long-term position.
Never add to a losing position. If your stop-loss is hit, exit completely. Averaging down turns a small, controlled loss into a potentially large one.

Position Sizing by Conviction Tier

Size each position according to the coloured border on its pick card. Cap your total exposure across all picks from this report at 25% of your overall trading budget.

Agents Agreeing	What It Means	Max Allocation Per Pick
5/5	Highest conviction — all five independent analytical checks passed	Up to 10%
4/5	Very high conviction — four of five independent checks aligned	Up to 8%
3/5	High conviction — three agents independently agreed	Up to 6%
2/5	Moderate conviction — two agents independently agreed	Up to 4%
1 Agent	Speculative — solo pick, admitted only at Very High confidence	Up to 2%

The Three Exit Rules

Stop-loss hit — exit the moment the price falls to the Max Downside % shown on the pick card. Apply this rule without exception.
Target hit — sell when the stock reaches its Target Price. You may choose to sell half and trail the remainder, but always lock in at least some profit.
Time's up — close all positions by November 1, 2026. The agents built their thesis around a 30-day window; beyond that, the original analysis no longer applies.

These picks are generated by AI agents for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Probability estimates reflect the agents' analytical models — they are not guarantees of any outcome. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Markets can and do move against even well-researched trades. Always conduct your own research, and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before placing any orders. Never invest money you cannot afford to lose.

Understanding the Numbers

A plain-English guide to every figure shown on each pick card — what it means, how it is calculated, and what a good or bad value looks like.

AI Conviction Meter

Estimated probability of hitting the target, shown as a 5-bar gauge

The filled bars and label translate the AI's probability estimate into plain language: 75%+ is Very strong, 60–74% Strong, 50–59% Moderate, below 50% Cautious. Where enough past picks have been resolved, the probability is calibrated against the AI's real track record.

e.g. "Moderate conviction · 58%" — the AI thinks this trade works slightly more often than a coin flip.

✓ More filled bars = more confidence — but even Very strong picks fail sometimes; always size positions accordingly.

If You Invested $1,000

$1,000 × (1 + Target Gain ÷ 100) / $1,000 × (1 + Max Downside ÷ 100)

The same Target Gain and Max Downside percentages expressed in concrete money terms for a $1,000 position — what you'd have if the target hits versus if your stop-loss is triggered.

e.g. +10% target and −12.3% stop → $1,100 on a win, $877 on a stopped-out loss.

✓ Scales linearly — a $500 position sees half these amounts, a $2,000 position double.

Current Price

Market price at time of analysis

The stock's price when this report was generated. All other figures on the card are calculated from this reference point.

e.g. $215.20 — check the live price before placing an order; if it has moved more than ~3%, re-evaluate the risk/reward.

✓ No positive/negative distinction — it is simply your cost basis.

Target Price

Current Price × (1 + Target Gain ÷ 100)

The price the agents project the stock could reach within the time window. This is your take-profit level — place a limit sell order here after buying.

e.g. $215.20 × 1.085 = $233.49 target on an 8.5% pick.

✓ Always above Current Price — this tool only selects upside candidates.

Target Gain

(Target Price − Current Price) ÷ Current Price × 100

The percentage return you would earn if the stock hits its Target Price from your entry. Set by the run parameters — every pick in this report targets the same percentage.

e.g. +8.5% means a $100 stock has a $108.50 target; a $500 stock has a $542.50 target.

✓ Always positive — picks are upside-only. A larger % means a bigger move is required.

Max Downside

Estimated stop-loss level, as % below entry

The worst-case loss the agents estimated if the thesis fails — based on key support levels and recent volatility. Use this as your hard stop-loss. If the price falls to this level, exit immediately; the trade thesis is broken.

e.g. −12.0% means: if you bought at $100, sell if it drops to $88.00.

⚠ Always negative. A smaller magnitude (e.g. −5%) = tighter risk. A larger magnitude (e.g. −20%) = more room to fall before you exit — riskier.

Reward : Risk

Target Gain ÷ |Max Downside|

How much you could gain for every dollar you are risking. A ratio of 2.0:1 means you stand to make $2 for every $1 at risk. Higher is better.

e.g. 8.5% gain ÷ 12% downside = 0.7:1 (unfavourable). 10% gain ÷ 5% downside = 2.0:1 (good).

✓ ≥ 2.0:1 is strong. ⚠ < 1.0:1 means you are risking more than you could gain — approach with caution.

Breakeven Win Rate

|Max Downside| ÷ (Target Gain + |Max Downside|) × 100

The minimum percentage of trades at this reward:risk that must succeed for you to break even over time — regardless of how good your stock picking is.

e.g. 12 ÷ (8.5 + 12) = 59% — you need roughly 6 in 10 trades to win just to avoid losing money.

✓ Lower is better — ≤ 35% means even a poor win rate is survivable. ⚠ ≥ 55% means you need most trades to work out.

Expected Value

(Probability% × Target Gain%) + ((1 − Probability%) × Max Downside%)

The average return per trade if the AI's probability estimate is accurate over many similar trades. A positive Expected Value means the trade has a mathematical edge; a negative value means the math works against you on average, even if you sometimes win.

e.g. 65% × +8.5% + 35% × −12% = +1.3% EV. Over 100 similar trades you would expect an average gain of 1.3% per trade.

✓ Positive = edge in your favour over many trades. ⚠ Negative = the math loses money on average — even if individual wins feel good. Note: EV is only as reliable as the probability estimate.

Suggested Allocation

half-Kelly: (Probability ÷ |Max Downside| − (1 − Probability) ÷ Target Gain) ÷ 2, capped at 10%

The Kelly criterion computes the portfolio fraction that maximises long-run growth for a bet with these odds; half-Kelly is the standard hedge against the probability estimate being too optimistic. Uses the calibrated probability where available. 0% means the math sees no edge worth sizing; — means it couldn't be computed.

e.g. 57% probability, +10% target, −13% downside → Kelly ≈ 8.5% of portfolio, half-Kelly ≈ 4.2%.

Generic sizing guidance only — not personal investment advice. Position sizing must reflect your own portfolio, risk tolerance and circumstances.

Every stock Scout considered — and why each was discarded

Scout scanned 100 FTSE 100 constituents and short-listed 25 candidates for deep analysis by the five analysts. Here is what happened to each one.

SMIN.LSmiths Group plcAlready held
Scout: Up ~11% over 30 days and only ~2.4% off its 52-week high, among the strongest sustained uptrends in the index.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-28 runs until 2026-10-28 (27 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
SMT.LScottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLCAlready held
Scout: 30-day return of +8.5% with 5-day follow-through, trading just ~0.6% below its 52-week high — strong, persistent momentum.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-21 runs until 2026-10-21 (20 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
PCT.LPolar Capital Technology Trust plcPicked #1
Scout: Best 30-day return in the set (+12.4%) with continued 5-day gains, reflecting strength in its tech holdings.
Made the final report at #1.
DPLM.LDiploma PLCAlready held
Scout: 30-day return of +9% while sitting under 2% from its 52-week high — a steady compounder showing renewed strength.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-28 runs until 2026-10-28 (27 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
ALW.LAlliance Witan PlcPicked #5
Scout: Consistent positive 5-day and 30-day returns while trading essentially at its 52-week high, signalling stable institutional demand.
Made the final report at #5.
IMI.LIMI plcDropped at merge
Scout: Positive 5-day and 30-day momentum with price only ~2% below its 52-week high.
Qualified on merit but ranked #6, outside the 5-pick limit for this run.
BEZ.LBeazley plcPassed over
Scout: Trading right at its 52-week high with steady positive short- and medium-term returns, an outlier of stability amid the broader insurer weakness.
Aria: Passed the initial trend screen but an RSI near 80 shows the stock is deeply overbought and pinned near the top of an unusually tight trading range, making a fresh 5% move without a pullback first unlikely.
Blaze: Technical indicators show overbought conditions (RSI near 80) with an unusually tight trading range, leaving little room for further gains
Nova: RSI of 79.6 signals an overbought stock likely due for a pause rather than a fresh breakout.
Orion: Insurers are one of the sectors falling sharply in the current pullback, and Beazley's own gains are tiny while its momentum reading is already stretched, so there's no real sector tailwind to lean on.
Quinn: RSI at 79.6 signals the stock is already overbought and its trading range has been extremely tight, making a fresh 5% move statistically unlikely despite a slightly positive MACD.
SDR.LSchroders plcAlready held
Scout: Modest but positive 5-day and 30-day returns while sitting under 2% from its 52-week high.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-09 runs until 2026-10-09 (7 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
KGF.LKingfisher plcAlready held
Scout: Strong 30-day return of +10.3%, suggesting renewed buying interest in the home-improvement retailer.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-23 runs until 2026-10-23 (21 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
PSN.LPersimmon PlcPicked #2
Scout: Sharp acceleration with +7.2% over 5 days and +8.7% over 30 days, the strongest short-term momentum among housebuilders, likely tied to rate-cut optimism.
Made the final report at #2.
BTRW.LBarratt Redrow plcAlready held
Scout: Positive 5-day (+3%) and 30-day (+4.5%) returns, tracking the same housebuilder tailwind as Persimmon.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-28 runs until 2026-10-28 (27 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
SHEL.LShell plcAlready held
Scout: 30-day return of +4.5% and only ~4% below its 52-week high, showing resilience versus the broader market.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-14 runs until 2026-10-14 (13 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
SPX.LSpirax Group plcLiquidity filter
Scout: Positive 5-day (+2.7%) and 30-day (+5.4%) momentum in a specialty industrial name.
20-day average daily volume 202,736 shares is below the 500,000-share liquidity floor.
VOD.LVodafone Group Public Limited CompanyAlready held
Scout: 30-day return of +6.2% with price within 4% of its 52-week high, suggesting a sustained re-rating.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-09 runs until 2026-10-09 (7 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
IAG.LInternational Consolidated Airlines Group S.A.Already held
Scout: 30-day gain of +5.2% with continued 5-day follow-through, indicating resilient travel demand.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-22 runs until 2026-10-22 (20 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
UU.LUnited Utilities Group PLCAlready held
Scout: Steady positive 5-day and 30-day returns, a defensive name holding up within 5% of its 52-week high.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-30 runs until 2026-10-30 (28 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
SSE.LSSE plcAlready held
Scout: 30-day return of +3.7%, a utility showing relative strength against the broader FTSE drawdown.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-21 runs until 2026-10-21 (20 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
MTLN.LMetlen Energy & Metals PLCLiquidity filter
Scout: Positive 5-day and 30-day returns (+1.2%/+4.3%) in a diversified metals and energy name.
20-day average daily volume 154,057 shares is below the 500,000-share liquidity floor.
HLMA.LHalma plcPassed over
Scout: Strongest 5-day return in the set at +3.3%, suggesting a fresh momentum shift after a flatter 30-day period.
Aria: Failed the momentum screen - shares dipped over the last 5 days, breaking the required positive recent trend, with a volume-divergence warning flag also showing.
Blaze: Price remains below its 200-day moving average and 5-day momentum is negative, so the recent downtrend has not clearly reversed
Nova: Recent 5-day momentum is actually negative (-1.0%) with a bearish volume divergence — the opposite of the fresh-move signal needed.
Orion: Its price has drifted down over the last five days and the volume trend is diverging bearishly from price, so it fails the positive near-term trend check despite being in an otherwise favoured industrial group.
Quinn: On-balance volume is diverging from price (a bearish signal) and 5-day momentum is slightly negative, pulling the computed probability to the floor.
IHG.LInterContinental Hotels Group PLCLiquidity filter
Scout: 5-day return of +2.9% pointing to renewed short-term buying interest in the hotel operator.
20-day average daily volume 299,931 shares is below the 500,000-share liquidity floor.
CCC.LComputacenter plcLiquidity filter
Scout: Positive 30-day return (+1.7%) in a steadier IT-services name while most tech-adjacent peers are down.
20-day average daily volume 374,197 shares is below the 500,000-share liquidity floor.
BP.LBP p.l.c.Picked #4
Scout: 30-day return of +2.8% with price within 8.5% of its 52-week high, outperforming most of the broader market.
Made the final report at #4.
DCC.LDCC plcAlready held
Scout: Positive 30-day return and trading only ~4.5% below its 52-week high, showing steadier behavior than cyclical peers.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-25 runs until 2026-10-25 (23 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
RR.LRolls-Royce Holdings plcAlready held
Scout: Positive 30-day return while sitting under 7% from its 52-week high, continuing its multi-month strength versus the broader index.
Already held: a position opened 2026-09-23 runs until 2026-10-23 (21 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
WTB.LWhitbread plcPicked #3
Scout: Strongest 5-day return among hospitality names (+3.9%), indicating a short-term momentum pickup.
Made the final report at #3.

Agent Analytical Approaches

Aria

Momentum & Technical

Checks 30-day price history for every candidate before making any selection. Requires positive period return and positive 5-day momentum as mandatory gates. Ranks picks by proximity to their period high and adjusts probability based on volume. Uses news only to rule out major negative catalysts.

Blaze

Fundamental & Earnings

Searches earnings results, analyst upgrades, and revenue trends before checking price data. Requires at least one verifiable fundamental catalyst — earnings beat, analyst upgrade, or revenue acceleration — within the last 60 days. Favours stocks with strong fundamentals trading below recent highs (value entry).

Nova

News Catalyst & Event-Driven

Hunts for specific events within the last 21 days: FDA approvals, major contract wins, product launches, earnings surprises, or significant analyst upgrades. Requires a positive price reaction confirming the market is recognising the catalyst. Also scans for upcoming events that could drive further gains.

Orion

Macro & Sector Rotation

Maps the macroeconomic regime (risk-on / risk-off / neutral) and identifies sectors benefiting from current conditions before looking at individual stocks. Only selects stocks from macro-aligned sectors with confirmed sector tailwinds. Adjusts for interest rate sensitivity and geopolitical factors.

Sage

Devil's Advocate

Reviews the final picks after all four analysts agree and actively challenges each bull thesis. Searches for bearish technical signals, negative news, insider selling, and elevated short interest that the agreeing agents may have underweighted. Produces evidence-based counter-arguments shown on each pick card.

Quinn

Quantitative / Statistical

Pure-quant analyst: no news, no narrative, only numbers. Identifies mean-reversion setups from RSI extremes (<35) with momentum turning, Bollinger squeeze breakouts, and multi-factor quant scores using RSI, MACD, OBV, short interest, and insider transaction data. Counterbalances narrative bias across the four analyst agents.