Monday, September 14, 2026 · Five AI analysts screened this index for stocks with the best shot at gaining +5% within 30 days
Cautious Normal choppiness · VIX 16.7
The FTSE 100 is in a broad, sharp risk-off rout, with UK domestic cyclicals (housebuilders, REITs, banks, retailers, defense) down double digits, consistent with sterling weakness and/or fiscal/gilt-market stress rather than a stock-specific issue. Against that backdrop, energy majors, dollar/euro-earning defensives, and a handful of names sitting near their 52-week highs are showing genuine relative strength.
Which of today's picks to actually take, and at what size, given what you are already holding. Each pick's own Suggested Allocation sizes it in isolation; this table applies the portfolio limits — at most 20 open positions and 60% of the portfolio committed in total. Run with --capital 25000 to see these sizes as order amounts rather than percentages.
| Rank | Stock | Action | Size | Entry → Target | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | SHEL.L | SKIP | — | £3,582.00 → £3,761.10 stop £3,313.35 |
Position cap reached — 99 of 20 slots in use. |
| #2 | TSCO.L | SKIP | — | £480.90 → £504.94 stop £444.83 |
Position cap reached — 99 of 20 slots in use. |
Already open: CPAY (to Sep 16), GPN (to Sep 16), STT (to Sep 16), STJ.L (to Sep 16), SCHW (to Sep 17), TRGP (to Sep 17), AV.L (to Sep 17), PSN.L (to Sep 17), SMT.L (to Sep 18), ABBV (to Sep 19), EOG (to Sep 19), VRTX (to Sep 19) … and 87 more. Symbols you already hold were excluded from this run's candidates rather than re-picked.
Position-sizing guidance only — half-Kelly per pick, bounded by the limits above. Not personal investment advice.
Shell is one of the world's biggest oil and gas producers. Its shares have surged over the past month and now sit right at their highest point in a year, and energy companies are one of the few groups holding up while the rest of the UK market sells off on currency and government-debt worries. The main risk is that the stock has climbed so fast it looks 'overbought,' so a pause or pullback wouldn't be surprising.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 62% (raw model estimate: 64%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 70% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.
What each AI analyst estimated
Tesco is the UK's largest supermarket chain, selling groceries and general merchandise both in stores and online. Its shares are up over the past month, have cleared both their 50-day and 200-day trend lines, and are outperforming the wider UK market even as many other domestic retailers struggle in the current sterling/gilt-driven sell-off, suggesting the company has its own positive momentum separate from sector-wide pressure. The main risk is that this is still a low-growth grocery stock in a shaky UK consumer environment, so any wobble in sentiment could quickly erase the recent gains.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 62% (raw model estimate: 61%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 70% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.
What each AI analyst estimated
This report identifies stocks with an AI-assessed probability of gaining +5% within 30 calendar days (target exit by October 14, 2026). Picks are ranked by how many independent AI agents agreed — more agreement means higher conviction. The guide below tells you exactly how to act on them.
Step-by-Step Action Plan
Position Sizing by Conviction Tier
Size each position according to the coloured border on its pick card. Cap your total exposure across all picks from this report at 25% of your overall trading budget.
| Agents Agreeing | What It Means | Max Allocation Per Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 5/5 | Highest conviction — all five independent analytical checks passed | Up to 10% |
| 4/5 | Very high conviction — four of five independent checks aligned | Up to 8% |
| 3/5 | High conviction — three agents independently agreed | Up to 6% |
| 2/5 | Moderate conviction — two agents independently agreed | Up to 4% |
| 1 Agent | Speculative — solo pick, admitted only at Very High confidence | Up to 2% |
The Three Exit Rules
A plain-English guide to every figure shown on each pick card — what it means, how it is calculated, and what a good or bad value looks like.
Scout scanned 100 FTSE 100 constituents and short-listed 22 candidates for deep analysis by the five analysts. Here is what happened to each one.
Checks 30-day price history for every candidate before making any selection. Requires positive period return and positive 5-day momentum as mandatory gates. Ranks picks by proximity to their period high and adjusts probability based on volume. Uses news only to rule out major negative catalysts.
Searches earnings results, analyst upgrades, and revenue trends before checking price data. Requires at least one verifiable fundamental catalyst — earnings beat, analyst upgrade, or revenue acceleration — within the last 60 days. Favours stocks with strong fundamentals trading below recent highs (value entry).
Hunts for specific events within the last 21 days: FDA approvals, major contract wins, product launches, earnings surprises, or significant analyst upgrades. Requires a positive price reaction confirming the market is recognising the catalyst. Also scans for upcoming events that could drive further gains.
Maps the macroeconomic regime (risk-on / risk-off / neutral) and identifies sectors benefiting from current conditions before looking at individual stocks. Only selects stocks from macro-aligned sectors with confirmed sector tailwinds. Adjusts for interest rate sensitivity and geopolitical factors.
Reviews the final picks after all four analysts agree and actively challenges each bull thesis. Searches for bearish technical signals, negative news, insider selling, and elevated short interest that the agreeing agents may have underweighted. Produces evidence-based counter-arguments shown on each pick card.
Pure-quant analyst: no news, no narrative, only numbers. Identifies mean-reversion setups from RSI extremes (<35) with momentum turning, Bollinger squeeze breakouts, and multi-factor quant scores using RSI, MACD, OBV, short interest, and insider transaction data. Counterbalances narrative bias across the four analyst agents.