AI Stock Picks — FTSE 100

Thursday, August 27, 2026  ·  Five AI analysts screened this index for stocks with the best shot at gaining +5% within 30 days

Today's Market Mood

Neutral  Calm market · VIX 14.5

FTSE 100 trading is dominated by extreme single-day dispersion consistent with interim/H1 results season: strong earnings beats have driven double-digit pops in miners, chemicals and select insurers/tech, while misses have hammered names like Rentokil (-19%), IG Group (-19%) and Entain (-11%). A concurrent commodities rally (gold, copper, iron ore) is amplifying gains for resources stocks, and rate-cut expectations are lifting housebuilders and utilities.

Post-earnings momentum in mining/precious metals on commodity price strength (copper, gold, iron ore)Interim results season causing sharp bifurcation between beats and misses across the indexRate-cut expectations supporting housebuilders, REITs and defensive utilitiesSeveral quality names trading within a few percent of 52-week highs, signalling sustained institutional accumulation

Today's Actionable List

Which of today's picks to actually take, and at what size, given what you are already holding. Each pick's own Suggested Allocation sizes it in isolation; this table applies the portfolio limits — at most 20 open positions and 60% of the portfolio committed in total. Run with --capital 25000 to see these sizes as order amounts rather than percentages.

0 of 1
0%
105 · 921%
921% / 60%
0 of 20
RankStockActionSizeEntry → TargetNotes
#1 ADM.L SKIP — £4,076.00 → £4,279.80
stop £3,908.88
 Position cap reached — 105 of 20 slots in use.

Already open: DGX (to Aug 28), HIG (to Aug 28), WAB (to Aug 28), GM (to Aug 29), MET (to Aug 30), AMP (to Sep 3), MSFT (to Sep 4), RJF (to Sep 4), NVDA (to Sep 5), AME (to Sep 6), SWK (to Sep 6), FAST (to Sep 9) … and 93 more. Symbols you already hold were excluded from this run's candidates rather than re-picked.

Position-sizing guidance only — half-Kelly per pick, bounded by the limits above. Not personal investment advice.

Behind the scenes: how each AI analyst did
Aria
4 picks
Blaze
2 picks
Nova
2 picks
Orion
3 picks
Quinn
4 picks

1 Stock Pick

#1 ADM.LAdmiral Group plc
2/5 Agents Agree  Risk 3/10
Strong conviction · 69%

Admiral Group is one of the UK's largest car and home insurers. Shares have jumped strongly, likely on a well-received earnings update, and the technical picture points to a healthy uptrend. The main risk is that with the stock already up sharply and looking a bit overbought, some of the good news may already be reflected in the price.

Stop-loss£3,908.88-4.1%
Today's price£4,076.00
Target£4,279.80+5.0%
If you invested £1,000
▲£1,050 if the target hits (+5.0%)
▼£959 if the stop-loss is hit (-4.1%)
The AI puts the chance of the win case at 69%. Not a guarantee — always set the stop-loss.

Why the AI likes it

What could go wrong

⚔ The Skeptic's View — Sage, the Devil's Advocate
  • RSI14 is at 72.55, in overbought territory, and price sits at 4076 just below the Bollinger upper band of 4094.34, suggesting the +15% move is stretched and vulnerable to a pullback rather than fresh entry.
  • Price is up 13.54% from a previous close of 3590 in a single reported move against a 30-day ATR of only 84.37, meaning the recent advance is roughly 6x the average daily range — a magnitude far more consistent with a one-off earnings gap than sustainable trend continuation.
  • OBV is deeply negative at -14,101,840 despite the price surge; while not flagged as a formal divergence, negative on-balance volume alongside a 15% price gain suggests the rally is not being driven by proportionally strong buying volume.
Show the detailed analysis

Calibrated probability: 69% (raw model estimate: 62%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.

Trade math

1.2:1
45%
+1.5%
8.5%

Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.

What each AI analyst estimated

Aria
65%
High
Blaze
—
—
Price is already within 1.3% of its 52-week high with RSI near 73, leaving little value-entry margin and elevated pullback risk despite positive momentum.
Nova
—
—
Despite a strong monthly gain, trading volume is falling even as the price rises (a bearish divergence) and the stock is quite overbought, while its 5-day momentum is fading — signs the rally may be losing steam.
Orion
—
—
Admiral is an insurer, a sector not confirmed as a beneficiary of the current commodity rally or rate-cut rotation, so it was skipped despite strong recent price gains.
Quinn
60%
Medium

Data Sources

Yahoo FinanceFinvizMarketWatchSeeking Alpha

Retail Investor Execution Guide

This report identifies stocks with an AI-assessed probability of gaining +5% within 30 calendar days (target exit by September 26, 2026). Picks are ranked by how many independent AI agents agreed — more agreement means higher conviction. The guide below tells you exactly how to act on them.

Step-by-Step Action Plan

  1. Act within one trading day. Prices are freshest now. The longer you wait, the more the entry price drifts away from what the agents analysed.
  2. Verify the entry price. Check the live price before buying. If a stock has already moved more than 3% above the Current Price shown in the report, skip it or wait for a pullback — the risk/reward has shifted.
  3. Use limit orders, not market orders. Set your buy limit at or below the Current Price shown. Chasing with a market order gives brokers and algorithms an advantage over you.
  4. Set your stop-loss immediately after buying. Use the Max Downside % on each pick card as your hard exit level. If the price falls to that level, sell without hesitation — the trade thesis is broken.
  5. Set a take-profit at the Target Price. Place a limit sell order at the Target Price shown. When it fills, the trade is done — resist the urge to hold for more.
  6. Exit all positions by September 26, 2026. This is your hard deadline. If a stock has not hit its target by then, exit anyway. Holding past the window turns a short-term trade into an unsupervised long-term position.
  7. Never add to a losing position. If your stop-loss is hit, exit completely. Averaging down turns a small, controlled loss into a potentially large one.

Position Sizing by Conviction Tier

Size each position according to the coloured border on its pick card. Cap your total exposure across all picks from this report at 25% of your overall trading budget.

Agents Agreeing What It Means Max Allocation Per Pick
5/5 Highest conviction — all five independent analytical checks passed Up to 10%
4/5 Very high conviction — four of five independent checks aligned Up to 8%
3/5 High conviction — three agents independently agreed Up to 6%
2/5 Moderate conviction — two agents independently agreed Up to 4%
1 Agent Speculative — solo pick, admitted only at Very High confidence Up to 2%

The Three Exit Rules

These picks are generated by AI agents for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Probability estimates reflect the agents' analytical models — they are not guarantees of any outcome. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Markets can and do move against even well-researched trades. Always conduct your own research, and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before placing any orders. Never invest money you cannot afford to lose.

Understanding the Numbers

A plain-English guide to every figure shown on each pick card — what it means, how it is calculated, and what a good or bad value looks like.

AI Conviction Meter
Estimated probability of hitting the target, shown as a 5-bar gauge
The filled bars and label translate the AI's probability estimate into plain language: 75%+ is Very strong, 60–74% Strong, 50–59% Moderate, below 50% Cautious. Where enough past picks have been resolved, the probability is calibrated against the AI's real track record.
e.g. "Moderate conviction · 58%" — the AI thinks this trade works slightly more often than a coin flip.
✓ More filled bars = more confidence — but even Very strong picks fail sometimes; always size positions accordingly.
If You Invested $1,000
$1,000 × (1 + Target Gain ÷ 100)  /  $1,000 × (1 + Max Downside ÷ 100)
The same Target Gain and Max Downside percentages expressed in concrete money terms for a $1,000 position — what you'd have if the target hits versus if your stop-loss is triggered.
e.g. +10% target and −12.3% stop → $1,100 on a win, $877 on a stopped-out loss.
✓ Scales linearly — a $500 position sees half these amounts, a $2,000 position double.
Current Price
Market price at time of analysis
The stock's price when this report was generated. All other figures on the card are calculated from this reference point.
e.g. $215.20 — check the live price before placing an order; if it has moved more than ~3%, re-evaluate the risk/reward.
✓ No positive/negative distinction — it is simply your cost basis.
Target Price
Current Price × (1 + Target Gain ÷ 100)
The price the agents project the stock could reach within the time window. This is your take-profit level — place a limit sell order here after buying.
e.g. $215.20 × 1.085 = $233.49 target on an 8.5% pick.
✓ Always above Current Price — this tool only selects upside candidates.
Target Gain
(Target Price − Current Price) ÷ Current Price × 100
The percentage return you would earn if the stock hits its Target Price from your entry. Set by the run parameters — every pick in this report targets the same percentage.
e.g. +8.5% means a $100 stock has a $108.50 target; a $500 stock has a $542.50 target.
✓ Always positive — picks are upside-only. A larger % means a bigger move is required.
Max Downside
Estimated stop-loss level, as % below entry
The worst-case loss the agents estimated if the thesis fails — based on key support levels and recent volatility. Use this as your hard stop-loss. If the price falls to this level, exit immediately; the trade thesis is broken.
e.g. −12.0% means: if you bought at $100, sell if it drops to $88.00.
⚠ Always negative. A smaller magnitude (e.g. −5%) = tighter risk. A larger magnitude (e.g. −20%) = more room to fall before you exit — riskier.
Reward : Risk
Target Gain ÷ |Max Downside|
How much you could gain for every dollar you are risking. A ratio of 2.0:1 means you stand to make $2 for every $1 at risk. Higher is better.
e.g. 8.5% gain ÷ 12% downside = 0.7:1 (unfavourable). 10% gain ÷ 5% downside = 2.0:1 (good).
✓ ≥ 2.0:1 is strong. ⚠ < 1.0:1 means you are risking more than you could gain — approach with caution.
Breakeven Win Rate
|Max Downside| ÷ (Target Gain + |Max Downside|) × 100
The minimum percentage of trades at this reward:risk that must succeed for you to break even over time — regardless of how good your stock picking is.
e.g. 12 ÷ (8.5 + 12) = 59% — you need roughly 6 in 10 trades to win just to avoid losing money.
✓ Lower is better — ≤ 35% means even a poor win rate is survivable. ⚠ ≥ 55% means you need most trades to work out.
Expected Value
(Probability% × Target Gain%) + ((1 − Probability%) × Max Downside%)
The average return per trade if the AI's probability estimate is accurate over many similar trades. A positive Expected Value means the trade has a mathematical edge; a negative value means the math works against you on average, even if you sometimes win.
e.g. 65% × +8.5% + 35% × −12% = +1.3% EV. Over 100 similar trades you would expect an average gain of 1.3% per trade.
✓ Positive = edge in your favour over many trades. ⚠ Negative = the math loses money on average — even if individual wins feel good. Note: EV is only as reliable as the probability estimate.
Suggested Allocation
half-Kelly: (Probability ÷ |Max Downside| − (1 − Probability) ÷ Target Gain) ÷ 2, capped at 10%
The Kelly criterion computes the portfolio fraction that maximises long-run growth for a bet with these odds; half-Kelly is the standard hedge against the probability estimate being too optimistic. Uses the calibrated probability where available. 0% means the math sees no edge worth sizing; — means it couldn't be computed.
e.g. 57% probability, +10% target, −13% downside → Kelly ≈ 8.5% of portfolio, half-Kelly ≈ 4.2%.
Generic sizing guidance only — not personal investment advice. Position sizing must reflect your own portfolio, risk tolerance and circumstances.
Every stock Scout considered — and why each was discarded

Scout scanned 100 FTSE 100 constituents and short-listed 25 candidates for deep analysis by the five analysts. Here is what happened to each one.

  • AAL.LAnglo American plcAlready held
    Scout: Up 16.5% on the day and 15.9% over 30 days on a strong results beat, sitting just 0.9% off its 52-week high — momentum plus commodity tailwind.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-24 runs until 2026-09-23 (27 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • ANTO.LAntofagasta plcDropped at merge
    Scout: 8.7% five-day and 13.3% thirty-day gains on copper strength; earnings-driven breakout with room before hitting its prior high.
    Reward-to-risk 0.48 is below the 0.50 minimum — a +5.10% target against a -10.7% stop.
  • CRDA.LCroda International PlcLiquidity filter
    Scout: 17.2% single-day pop on results, now only 2.6% from its 52-week high with strong 30-day follow-through — classic post-earnings drift setup.
    20-day average daily volume 466,913 shares is below the 500,000-share liquidity floor.
  • RIO.LRio Tinto GroupAlready held
    Scout: Broke 12.5% higher on earnings with a 13% 30-day return; large-cap miner benefiting from the same commodity tailwind as peers.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-25 runs until 2026-09-24 (28 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • GLEN.LGlencore plcAlready held
    Scout: 14.7% day gain and 15.4% 30-day return following a results beat; still 15.8% below its high, leaving room to re-rate.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-21 runs until 2026-09-20 (24 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • FRES.LFresnillo plcAlready held
    Scout: 24% single-day surge on earnings plus the gold/silver rally; 22.4% 30-day momentum suggests continuation risk is skewed to the upside.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-21 runs until 2026-09-20 (24 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • EDV.LEndeavour Mining plcDropped at merge
    Scout: 32.5% single-day and 32.7% 30-day gain on a strong beat and gold price strength; highest-conviction momentum name in the mining basket.
    Average probability across the 5 agent(s) that selected it was 59% raw (48% after calibration), below the 52% minimum to qualify.
  • WEIR.LWeir PLCAlready held
    Scout: Nearly 10% five-day and 12.7% 30-day gains on results tied to mining capex demand — a levered play on the same commodity cycle.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-24 runs until 2026-09-23 (27 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • MTLN.LMetlen Energy & Metals PLCLiquidity filter
    Scout: 12.7% day and 11.4% 30-day gain on results; diversified metals/energy exposure participating in the sector rally.
    20-day average daily volume 133,074 shares is below the 500,000-share liquidity floor.
  • ADM.LAdmiral Group plcPicked #1
    Scout: 13.5% day gain and 15% 30-day return on a strong insurance results print, now just 1.3% off its 52-week high.
    Made the final report at #1.
  • AV.LAviva plcAlready held
    Scout: 5% day gain lifting the 30-day return to 6%, only 2.5% from its 52-week high — steady insurer momentum.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-18 runs until 2026-09-17 (21 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • STJ.LSt. James's Place plcAlready held
    Scout: 8.4% day and 8.9% 30-day gain on a results beat, continuing a wealth-management sector recovery.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-17 runs until 2026-09-16 (20 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • BGEO.LLion Finance Group PLCLiquidity filter
    Scout: 13.5% day and 13.4% 30-day gain on strong earnings, trading within 2% of its 52-week high.
    20-day average daily volume 72,318 shares is below the 500,000-share liquidity floor.
  • SGE.LThe Sage Group plcAlready held
    Scout: 19.3% 30-day return on a major earnings beat, just 6.6% off its 52-week high; software name showing durable post-results strength.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-19 runs until 2026-09-18 (22 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • CCC.LComputacenter plcLiquidity filter
    Scout: 16.75% day pop and 8.2% 30-day gain, currently sitting at its 52-week high — strongest technical setup in the basket.
    20-day average daily volume 234,740 shares is below the 500,000-share liquidity floor.
  • IMI.LIMI plcPassed over
    Scout: Consistent momentum (4.5% five-day, 5.3% thirty-day) and just 1.3% below its 52-week high on solid industrial demand.
    Aria: Barely passed the momentum screen (5-day momentum only +0.4%), and MACD has just turned bearish while trading volume shows a divergence from price — both signs the recent uptrend may be fading.
    Blaze: 5-day momentum has gone flat and the MACD histogram has turned negative, suggesting the rally is losing steam near its highs.
    Nova: Its 30-day gain is modest and 5-day momentum is essentially flat, showing no sign of a fresh move that would suggest a catalyst is currently in play.
    Orion: IMI is an industrial engineering firm outside the favoured mining/resources and housebuilder sectors, with no confirmed sector tailwind in the current news.
    Quinn: Momentum indicators are flat-to-negative (MACD histogram negative) and volume is not confirming the recent price gain, so no qualifying quantitative setup was found
  • DGE.LDiageo plcDropped at merge
    Scout: 7% day and 9.2% 30-day gain on a results beat, showing the start of a recovery off depressed levels.
    Only Aria selected this stock — single-agent picks require Very High confidence and at least 70% probability (this pick: High, 70%).
  • RR.LRolls-Royce Holdings plcAlready held
    Scout: Sustained uptrend (9.2% 30-day return) and only 3.5% from its 52-week high, backed by continued aerospace demand strength.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-17 runs until 2026-09-16 (20 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • MRO.LMelrose Industries PLCDropped at merge
    Scout: 7.8% day and 8.2% 30-day gain on results; aerospace/industrial exposure with room to close the gap to its highs.
    Only Quinn selected this stock — Quinn solo picks require High or Very High confidence and at least 60% probability (this pick: Medium, 60% raw (69% after calibration)).
  • PSN.LPersimmon PlcAlready held
    Scout: 6.25% day and 8.4% 30-day gain as housebuilders re-rate on rate-cut expectations and a results beat.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-18 runs until 2026-09-17 (21 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • BTRW.LBarratt Redrow plcDropped at merge
    Scout: 8.9% day and 9.9% 30-day gain, consistent with sector-wide housebuilder momentum on rate-cut hopes.
    Only Orion selected this stock — single-agent picks require Very High confidence and at least 70% probability (this pick: Medium, 58% raw (48% after calibration)).
  • HWDN.LHowden Joinery Group PlcPassed over
    Scout: 4.4% day and 6.4% 30-day gain, benefiting from the same housing-related rotation as the builders.
    Aria: Failed the momentum screen — 5-day price momentum is negative (-0.6%) despite a positive 30-day trend.
    Blaze: Price has slipped below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages with negative momentum and volume divergence, a technically weak setup despite the monthly gain.
    Nova: 5-day momentum is negative and no upcoming earnings date is available, leaving no evidence of a fresh catalyst.
    Orion: Howden Joinery is a building-products distributor rather than a pure housebuilder, and its momentum is fading (negative 5-day trend, bearish MACD crossover), so the housing rate-cut tailwind wasn't judged strong enough to include it.
    Quinn: 30-day return is under the momentum threshold and MACD histogram is negative with volume diverging from price, so no setup qualified
  • SMT.LScottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLCAlready held
    Scout: 11.25% day and 10.4% 30-day gain, only 5.4% from its 52-week high — strong growth-equity momentum.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-19 runs until 2026-09-18 (22 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • EXPN.LExperian plcAlready held
    Scout: 8.6% day gain lifting the 30-day return to 5.8% on a results beat, adding to a data/analytics growth story.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-21 runs until 2026-09-20 (24 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • UU.LUnited Utilities Group PLCAlready held
    Scout: Steady 3.9% day and 5.1% 30-day gain, just 5.2% off its 52-week high — defensive momentum with rate-cut tailwind.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-24 runs until 2026-09-23 (27 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.

Agent Analytical Approaches

Aria

Momentum & Technical

Checks 30-day price history for every candidate before making any selection. Requires positive period return and positive 5-day momentum as mandatory gates. Ranks picks by proximity to their period high and adjusts probability based on volume. Uses news only to rule out major negative catalysts.

Blaze

Fundamental & Earnings

Searches earnings results, analyst upgrades, and revenue trends before checking price data. Requires at least one verifiable fundamental catalyst — earnings beat, analyst upgrade, or revenue acceleration — within the last 60 days. Favours stocks with strong fundamentals trading below recent highs (value entry).

Nova

News Catalyst & Event-Driven

Hunts for specific events within the last 21 days: FDA approvals, major contract wins, product launches, earnings surprises, or significant analyst upgrades. Requires a positive price reaction confirming the market is recognising the catalyst. Also scans for upcoming events that could drive further gains.

Orion

Macro & Sector Rotation

Maps the macroeconomic regime (risk-on / risk-off / neutral) and identifies sectors benefiting from current conditions before looking at individual stocks. Only selects stocks from macro-aligned sectors with confirmed sector tailwinds. Adjusts for interest rate sensitivity and geopolitical factors.

Sage

Devil's Advocate

Reviews the final picks after all four analysts agree and actively challenges each bull thesis. Searches for bearish technical signals, negative news, insider selling, and elevated short interest that the agreeing agents may have underweighted. Produces evidence-based counter-arguments shown on each pick card.

Quinn

Quantitative / Statistical

Pure-quant analyst: no news, no narrative, only numbers. Identifies mean-reversion setups from RSI extremes (<35) with momentum turning, Bollinger squeeze breakouts, and multi-factor quant scores using RSI, MACD, OBV, short interest, and insider transaction data. Counterbalances narrative bias across the four analyst agents.