AI Stock Picks — FTSE 100

Tuesday, August 25, 2026  ·  Five AI analysts screened this index for stocks with the best shot at gaining +5% within 30 days

Today's Market Mood

Optimistic  Normal choppiness · VIX 15.8

The FTSE 100 shows a broad but bifurcated pattern consistent with peak UK interim results season: numerous constituents posted double-digit single-day gains alongside a handful of double-digit collapses, indicating stock-specific earnings/guidance reactions rather than a uniform macro move. Winners cluster in miners (on firmer gold/copper/silver prices), select financials, housebuilders, and a run of standout results beats (Croda, Sage, Admiral, Diageo), while several consumer-staples and business-services names sold off hard on disappointing updates.

UK interim results season driving sharp, stock-specific re-ratings across sectorsPrecious/base metals rally lifting miners (gold, silver, copper) toward or beyond 52-week highsHousebuilders and UK domestic cyclicals extending gains on rate-cut optimismDispersion risk: several large-cap misses (Rentokil, IG Group, Imperial Brands, British American Tobacco) show earnings season cuts both ways

Today's Actionable List

Which of today's picks to actually take, and at what size, given what you are already holding. Each pick's own Suggested Allocation sizes it in isolation; this table applies the portfolio limits — at most 20 open positions and 60% of the portfolio committed in total. Run with --capital 25000 to see these sizes as order amounts rather than percentages.

0 of 1
0%
101 · 882.5%
882.5% / 60%
0 of 20
RankStockActionSizeEntry → TargetNotes
#1 RIO.L SKIP — £7,713.00 → £8,127.74
stop £6,926.27
 Position cap reached — 101 of 20 slots in use.

Already open: JPM (to Aug 26), CB (to Aug 27), JPM (to Aug 27), RTX (to Aug 27), WAB (to Aug 27), DGX (to Aug 28), HIG (to Aug 28), WAB (to Aug 28), GM (to Aug 29), MET (to Aug 30), AMP (to Sep 3), WSM (to Sep 3) … and 89 more. Symbols you already hold were excluded from this run's candidates rather than re-picked.

Position-sizing guidance only — half-Kelly per pick, bounded by the limits above. Not personal investment advice.

Behind the scenes: how each AI analyst did
Aria
2 picks
Blaze
4 picks
Nova
3 picks
Orion
4 picks
Quinn
1 pick

1 Stock Pick

#1 RIO.LRio Tinto Group
4/5 Agents Agree  Risk 6/10
Strong conviction · 71%

Rio Tinto is one of the world's largest mining companies, digging up iron ore, copper, and other raw materials used in construction and manufacturing. Its share price has jumped sharply amid firmer metal prices and is clearly outpacing the broader UK market, suggesting genuine investor demand rather than a one-day blip. The main risk is that mining stocks swing hard with commodity prices, so any pullback in metal prices could quickly erase some of these gains.

Stop-loss£6,926.27-10.2%
Today's price£7,713.00
Target£8,127.74+5.4%
Agents estimate: £8,156.82 (+0.4% vs target)
If you invested £1,000
▲£1,054 if the target hits (+5.4%)
▼£898 if the stop-loss is hit (-10.2%)
The AI puts the chance of the win case at 71%. Not a guarantee — always set the stop-loss.

Why the AI likes it

What could go wrong

⚔ The Skeptic's View — Sage, the Devil's Advocate
  • The 30-day gain is dominated by a single-session +12.29% jump (7713 vs prior close 6869), not steady accumulation — OBV divergence is flagged true, meaning volume isn't confirming the price advance and the move looks more like a one-off gap than durable momentum.
  • Price (7713) is already pressed against the upper Bollinger Band (7786.66) with RSI at 65.35 approaching overbought — combined with no confirmed GoldenCross despite trading above both MAs, near-term follow-through room before technical resistance is thinner than the bull case implies.
Show the detailed analysis

Calibrated probability: 71% (raw model estimate: 60%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.

Trade math

0.5:1
65%
-0.9%
8.5%

Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.

What each AI analyst estimated

Aria
65%
High
Blaze
56%
Medium
Nova
53%
Medium
Orion
66%
High
Quinn
—
—
Strong 30-day gain, but trading volume is diverging from the price move (a distribution warning sign), capping the modeled odds at the 50% floor with low confidence

Data Sources

Yahoo FinanceFinvizMarketWatchSeeking Alpha

Retail Investor Execution Guide

This report identifies stocks with an AI-assessed probability of gaining +5% within 30 calendar days (target exit by September 24, 2026). Picks are ranked by how many independent AI agents agreed — more agreement means higher conviction. The guide below tells you exactly how to act on them.

Step-by-Step Action Plan

  1. Act within one trading day. Prices are freshest now. The longer you wait, the more the entry price drifts away from what the agents analysed.
  2. Verify the entry price. Check the live price before buying. If a stock has already moved more than 3% above the Current Price shown in the report, skip it or wait for a pullback — the risk/reward has shifted.
  3. Use limit orders, not market orders. Set your buy limit at or below the Current Price shown. Chasing with a market order gives brokers and algorithms an advantage over you.
  4. Set your stop-loss immediately after buying. Use the Max Downside % on each pick card as your hard exit level. If the price falls to that level, sell without hesitation — the trade thesis is broken.
  5. Set a take-profit at the Target Price. Place a limit sell order at the Target Price shown. When it fills, the trade is done — resist the urge to hold for more.
  6. Exit all positions by September 24, 2026. This is your hard deadline. If a stock has not hit its target by then, exit anyway. Holding past the window turns a short-term trade into an unsupervised long-term position.
  7. Never add to a losing position. If your stop-loss is hit, exit completely. Averaging down turns a small, controlled loss into a potentially large one.

Position Sizing by Conviction Tier

Size each position according to the coloured border on its pick card. Cap your total exposure across all picks from this report at 25% of your overall trading budget.

Agents Agreeing What It Means Max Allocation Per Pick
5/5 Highest conviction — all five independent analytical checks passed Up to 10%
4/5 Very high conviction — four of five independent checks aligned Up to 8%
3/5 High conviction — three agents independently agreed Up to 6%
2/5 Moderate conviction — two agents independently agreed Up to 4%
1 Agent Speculative — solo pick, admitted only at Very High confidence Up to 2%

The Three Exit Rules

These picks are generated by AI agents for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Probability estimates reflect the agents' analytical models — they are not guarantees of any outcome. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Markets can and do move against even well-researched trades. Always conduct your own research, and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser before placing any orders. Never invest money you cannot afford to lose.

Understanding the Numbers

A plain-English guide to every figure shown on each pick card — what it means, how it is calculated, and what a good or bad value looks like.

AI Conviction Meter
Estimated probability of hitting the target, shown as a 5-bar gauge
The filled bars and label translate the AI's probability estimate into plain language: 75%+ is Very strong, 60–74% Strong, 50–59% Moderate, below 50% Cautious. Where enough past picks have been resolved, the probability is calibrated against the AI's real track record.
e.g. "Moderate conviction · 58%" — the AI thinks this trade works slightly more often than a coin flip.
✓ More filled bars = more confidence — but even Very strong picks fail sometimes; always size positions accordingly.
If You Invested $1,000
$1,000 × (1 + Target Gain ÷ 100)  /  $1,000 × (1 + Max Downside ÷ 100)
The same Target Gain and Max Downside percentages expressed in concrete money terms for a $1,000 position — what you'd have if the target hits versus if your stop-loss is triggered.
e.g. +10% target and −12.3% stop → $1,100 on a win, $877 on a stopped-out loss.
✓ Scales linearly — a $500 position sees half these amounts, a $2,000 position double.
Current Price
Market price at time of analysis
The stock's price when this report was generated. All other figures on the card are calculated from this reference point.
e.g. $215.20 — check the live price before placing an order; if it has moved more than ~3%, re-evaluate the risk/reward.
✓ No positive/negative distinction — it is simply your cost basis.
Target Price
Current Price × (1 + Target Gain ÷ 100)
The price the agents project the stock could reach within the time window. This is your take-profit level — place a limit sell order here after buying.
e.g. $215.20 × 1.085 = $233.49 target on an 8.5% pick.
✓ Always above Current Price — this tool only selects upside candidates.
Target Gain
(Target Price − Current Price) ÷ Current Price × 100
The percentage return you would earn if the stock hits its Target Price from your entry. Set by the run parameters — every pick in this report targets the same percentage.
e.g. +8.5% means a $100 stock has a $108.50 target; a $500 stock has a $542.50 target.
✓ Always positive — picks are upside-only. A larger % means a bigger move is required.
Max Downside
Estimated stop-loss level, as % below entry
The worst-case loss the agents estimated if the thesis fails — based on key support levels and recent volatility. Use this as your hard stop-loss. If the price falls to this level, exit immediately; the trade thesis is broken.
e.g. −12.0% means: if you bought at $100, sell if it drops to $88.00.
⚠ Always negative. A smaller magnitude (e.g. −5%) = tighter risk. A larger magnitude (e.g. −20%) = more room to fall before you exit — riskier.
Reward : Risk
Target Gain ÷ |Max Downside|
How much you could gain for every dollar you are risking. A ratio of 2.0:1 means you stand to make $2 for every $1 at risk. Higher is better.
e.g. 8.5% gain ÷ 12% downside = 0.7:1 (unfavourable). 10% gain ÷ 5% downside = 2.0:1 (good).
✓ ≥ 2.0:1 is strong. ⚠ < 1.0:1 means you are risking more than you could gain — approach with caution.
Breakeven Win Rate
|Max Downside| ÷ (Target Gain + |Max Downside|) × 100
The minimum percentage of trades at this reward:risk that must succeed for you to break even over time — regardless of how good your stock picking is.
e.g. 12 ÷ (8.5 + 12) = 59% — you need roughly 6 in 10 trades to win just to avoid losing money.
✓ Lower is better — ≤ 35% means even a poor win rate is survivable. ⚠ ≥ 55% means you need most trades to work out.
Expected Value
(Probability% × Target Gain%) + ((1 − Probability%) × Max Downside%)
The average return per trade if the AI's probability estimate is accurate over many similar trades. A positive Expected Value means the trade has a mathematical edge; a negative value means the math works against you on average, even if you sometimes win.
e.g. 65% × +8.5% + 35% × −12% = +1.3% EV. Over 100 similar trades you would expect an average gain of 1.3% per trade.
✓ Positive = edge in your favour over many trades. ⚠ Negative = the math loses money on average — even if individual wins feel good. Note: EV is only as reliable as the probability estimate.
Suggested Allocation
half-Kelly: (Probability ÷ |Max Downside| − (1 − Probability) ÷ Target Gain) ÷ 2, capped at 10%
The Kelly criterion computes the portfolio fraction that maximises long-run growth for a bet with these odds; half-Kelly is the standard hedge against the probability estimate being too optimistic. Uses the calibrated probability where available. 0% means the math sees no edge worth sizing; — means it couldn't be computed.
e.g. 57% probability, +10% target, −13% downside → Kelly ≈ 8.5% of portfolio, half-Kelly ≈ 4.2%.
Generic sizing guidance only — not personal investment advice. Position sizing must reflect your own portfolio, risk tolerance and circumstances.
Every stock Scout considered — and why each was discarded

Scout scanned 100 FTSE 100 constituents and short-listed 26 candidates for deep analysis by the five analysts. Here is what happened to each one.

  • CRDA.LCroda International PlcLiquidity filter
    Scout: Results-day surge of ~18% on strong 5- and 30-day momentum, sitting less than 1% off its 52-week high — a genuine breakout with limited overhead resistance.
    20-day average daily volume 484,112 shares is below the 500,000-share liquidity floor.
  • ADM.LAdmiral Group plcAlready held
    Scout: Up ~13% on results with 30-day momentum intact and price essentially at its 52-week high, showing follow-through rather than a one-day spike.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-18 runs until 2026-09-17 (23 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • SGE.LThe Sage Group plcAlready held
    Scout: Near-30% single-day pop on results with 24.6% 30-day return, now within 6% of its 52-week high — strong institutional buying signal.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-19 runs until 2026-09-18 (24 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • BGEO.LLion Finance Group PLCLiquidity filter
    Scout: 14% results-day gain and 13.7% 30-day return, trading within 2% of its 52-week high with clean sustained momentum.
    20-day average daily volume 75,698 shares is below the 500,000-share liquidity floor.
  • AAL.LAnglo American plcAlready held
    Scout: 12%+ jump on strong metals pricing, 14.9% 30-day return and just 1.3% from its 52-week high, indicating the rally has legs beyond a single session.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-24 runs until 2026-09-23 (29 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • CCC.LComputacenter plcLiquidity filter
    Scout: 8.7% results-day gain with consistent 4-day and 30-day momentum, less than 1% off its 52-week high.
    20-day average daily volume 257,232 shares is below the 500,000-share liquidity floor.
  • RR.LRolls-Royce Holdings plcAlready held
    Scout: 8.25% daily move extending an 8.4% 30-day gain, only 3.4% from its 52-week high — continuation of a well-established uptrend.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-17 runs until 2026-09-16 (22 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • AV.LAviva plcAlready held
    Scout: Results beat drove a 5.7% pop with 6.2% 30-day return and price within 1.4% of its 52-week high.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-18 runs until 2026-09-17 (23 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • NXT.LNEXT plcLiquidity filter
    Scout: Consistent gainer (+6.2% daily, +4.35% both 5- and 30-day) sitting just 2.9% off its 52-week high on continued retail strength.
    20-day average daily volume 236,233 shares is below the 500,000-share liquidity floor.
  • GLEN.LGlencore plcAlready held
    Scout: Nearly 12% daily gain backed by an 8.5% 5-day and 15.8% 30-day return as base-metal prices firm, on very heavy volume confirming genuine demand.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-21 runs until 2026-09-20 (26 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • RIO.LRio Tinto GroupPicked #1
    Scout: 12.3% daily surge with 8.2% 5-day and 12.9% 30-day gains, riding the same metals tailwind as peers with strong volume confirmation.
    Made the final report at #1.
  • ANTO.LAntofagasta plcDropped at merge
    Scout: 10%+ daily gain with the strongest 5-day return in the mining cohort (10.6%) and 12.6% over 30 days, showing accelerating rather than fading momentum.
    Reward-to-risk 0.46 is below the 0.50 minimum — a +5.75% target against a -12.5% stop.
  • EDV.LEndeavour Mining plcDropped at merge
    Scout: Standout 32% daily move capping a 33% 30-day return as gold miners re-rate sharply; high-risk/high-reward but momentum is exceptionally strong.
    Average probability across the 5 agent(s) that selected it was 59% raw (48% after calibration), below the 52% minimum to qualify.
  • FRES.LFresnillo plcAlready held
    Scout: 24% daily gain and 23.8% 30-day return tracking the precious-metals rally; volatile but momentum is unambiguous.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-21 runs until 2026-09-20 (26 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • DGE.LDiageo plcDropped at merge
    Scout: 11% results-day pop reversing recent weakness, with 9.2% 30-day return signalling a possible turnaround in a long-depressed name.
    Reward-to-risk 0.38 is below the 0.50 minimum — a +5.75% target against a -15.0% stop.
  • WEIR.LWeir Group PLCAlready held
    Scout: Nearly 12% daily gain with the 5-day (9.5%) and 30-day (13.7%) returns both strongly positive, benefiting from mining capex tailwinds.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-24 runs until 2026-09-23 (29 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • BTRW.LBarratt Redrow plcDropped at merge
    Scout: 8.6% results-day jump extending a 9.1% 30-day gain as housebuilders re-rate on rate-cut hopes.
    Only Orion selected this stock — single-agent picks require Very High confidence and at least 70% probability (this pick: Medium, 58% raw (48% after calibration)).
  • MRO.LMelrose Industries PLCPassed over
    Scout: 8.4% daily gain with steady 3.3% 5-day and 7.9% 30-day momentum on aerospace-exposure optimism.
    Aria: 5-day momentum is negative, failing the short-term trend requirement.
    Blaze: Price remains below its 200-day moving average despite the recent jump, and volume shows a bearish divergence — too mixed a technical picture for a fundamental proxy pick.
    Nova: Recent 5-day momentum is negative, suggesting the earlier move higher has lost steam
    Orion: No confirmed sector tailwind for industrials/aerospace components in current market conditions, despite a decent 30-day gain
    Quinn: Just missed the momentum-breakout return threshold and shows volume diverging from price, keeping odds at the 50% floor
  • PSN.LPersimmon PlcAlready held
    Scout: 7.5% results-day gain with consistent 2% 5-day and 7% 30-day returns, part of the broader housebuilder momentum move.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-18 runs until 2026-09-17 (23 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • KGF.LKingfisher plcPassed over
    Scout: 7.5% daily gain with 5.9% 30-day return as UK home-improvement retail sentiment improves.
    Aria: 5-day momentum is flat to negative, failing the short-term trend requirement.
    Blaze: Its next scheduled earnings report falls within the 30-day holding window, adding binary event risk that pushes the estimated probability down to a low-confidence floor.
    Nova: Modest monthly gain paired with negative 5-day momentum and no confirmed catalyst
    Orion: Weak relative strength (30-day gain of just 5.9%) and no confirmed sector tailwind for general retail
    Quinn: A Bollinger squeeze is present but the 30-day gain falls short of the breakout threshold, and volume divergence caps the odds at the 50% floor
  • HWDN.LHowden Joinery Group PlcPassed over
    Scout: 5.2% gain on results with steady 30-day momentum (4.5%), a smaller but consistent mover in the same building-products space.
    Aria: 5-day momentum is negative and the RSI is neutral, showing fading short-term strength.
    Blaze: Price is trading below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages with negative momentum, failing the constructive-trend bar needed for a technical proxy pick.
    Nova: Weakest performer of the group with negative 5-day momentum and only a small monthly gain, no confirmed catalyst
    Orion: Weakest momentum in the group with fading 5-day trend, bearish MACD, and price below its 200-day average
    Quinn: RSI is neutral, MACD momentum is negative, and there's no squeeze or golden cross, so no setup qualifies
  • BT-A.LBT Group plcAlready held
    Scout: 7% daily gain with 4.2% 5-day and 3.9% 30-day returns showing a building, rather than one-off, move in a heavily-traded telecom name.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-21 runs until 2026-09-20 (26 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • ICG.LICG plcPassed over
    Scout: 7.9% daily gain within 14% of its 52-week high, adding to a positive 30-day trend in alternative asset management.
    Aria: 5-day momentum is negative, failing the short-term trend requirement.
    Blaze: Weakest 30-day price gain of the group with a notably negative momentum reading and no confirmed catalyst data, making the case too soft to support a pick.
    Nova: 5-day momentum is negative and the monthly gain is the smallest of the group, with no confirmed catalyst
    Orion: Weakest 30-day return and relative strength of all candidates, with fading recent momentum and no clearly confirmed sector tailwind
    Quinn: All technical indicators are neutral to negative with no squeeze or golden cross, so no quantitative setup qualifies
  • EXPN.LExperian plcAlready held
    Scout: 9.6% results-day gain with the 5-day (7.4%) and 30-day (7.2%) returns both confirming strength, despite being further from its 52-week high.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-21 runs until 2026-09-20 (26 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • STJ.LSt. James's Place plcAlready held
    Scout: 11% daily gain building on a 9.6% 30-day return as wealth-management flows improve, though further from its 52-week high so carries more re-rating room.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-17 runs until 2026-09-16 (22 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.
  • SMT.LScottish Mortgage OrdAlready held
    Scout: Nearly 12% daily gain with a 10.8% 30-day return, tracking a broad rally in global growth/tech-adjacent holdings.
    Already held: a position opened 2026-08-19 runs until 2026-09-18 (24 day(s) left). Re-picking it would concentrate the portfolio, not diversify it.

Agent Analytical Approaches

Aria

Momentum & Technical

Checks 30-day price history for every candidate before making any selection. Requires positive period return and positive 5-day momentum as mandatory gates. Ranks picks by proximity to their period high and adjusts probability based on volume. Uses news only to rule out major negative catalysts.

Blaze

Fundamental & Earnings

Searches earnings results, analyst upgrades, and revenue trends before checking price data. Requires at least one verifiable fundamental catalyst — earnings beat, analyst upgrade, or revenue acceleration — within the last 60 days. Favours stocks with strong fundamentals trading below recent highs (value entry).

Nova

News Catalyst & Event-Driven

Hunts for specific events within the last 21 days: FDA approvals, major contract wins, product launches, earnings surprises, or significant analyst upgrades. Requires a positive price reaction confirming the market is recognising the catalyst. Also scans for upcoming events that could drive further gains.

Orion

Macro & Sector Rotation

Maps the macroeconomic regime (risk-on / risk-off / neutral) and identifies sectors benefiting from current conditions before looking at individual stocks. Only selects stocks from macro-aligned sectors with confirmed sector tailwinds. Adjusts for interest rate sensitivity and geopolitical factors.

Sage

Devil's Advocate

Reviews the final picks after all four analysts agree and actively challenges each bull thesis. Searches for bearish technical signals, negative news, insider selling, and elevated short interest that the agreeing agents may have underweighted. Produces evidence-based counter-arguments shown on each pick card.

Quinn

Quantitative / Statistical

Pure-quant analyst: no news, no narrative, only numbers. Identifies mean-reversion setups from RSI extremes (<35) with momentum turning, Bollinger squeeze breakouts, and multi-factor quant scores using RSI, MACD, OBV, short interest, and insider transaction data. Counterbalances narrative bias across the four analyst agents.