Thursday, August 20, 2026 · Five AI analysts screened this index for stocks with the best shot at gaining +5% within 30 days
Optimistic Normal choppiness · VIX 15.9
Momentum is broadening across biotech/pharma, memory/AI semiconductors, and energy, with several names sitting within 1-3% of their 52-week highs on sustained 30-day gains. Mega-cap tech is mixed — Apple and Nvidia are stabilizing near highs while Meta, Tesla, and Broadcom show fresh weakness — so selectivity matters more than broad index exposure right now.
Which of today's picks to actually take, and at what size, given what you are already holding. Each pick's own Suggested Allocation sizes it in isolation; this table applies the portfolio limits — at most 20 open positions and 60% of the portfolio committed in total. Run with --capital 25000 to see these sizes as order amounts rather than percentages.
| Rank | Stock | Action | Size | Entry → Target | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | REGN | SKIP | — | $830.96 → $872.51 stop $771.13 |
Position cap reached — 87 of 20 slots in use. |
| #2 | MDLZ | SKIP | — | $63.97 → $67.17 stop $59.88 |
Position cap reached — 87 of 20 slots in use. |
| #3 | PYPL | SKIP | — | $61.62 → $64.90 stop $57.49 |
Position cap reached — 87 of 20 slots in use. |
| #4 | ADP | SKIP | — | $278.47 → $292.39 stop $257.30 |
Position cap reached — 87 of 20 slots in use. |
| #5 | WBD | SKIP | — | $28.50 → $29.92 stop $27.53 |
Position cap reached — 87 of 20 slots in use. |
Already open: MTB (to Aug 20), CSX (to Aug 22), WAB (to Aug 22), CSX (to Aug 22), JPM (to Aug 23), UNP (to Aug 23), CB (to Aug 24), JPM (to Aug 24), JPM (to Aug 26), CB (to Aug 27), JPM (to Aug 27), RTX (to Aug 27) … and 75 more. Symbols you already hold were excluded from this run's candidates rather than re-picked.
Position-sizing guidance only — half-Kelly per pick, bounded by the limits above. Not personal investment advice.
Regeneron is a biotech company known for treatments like Eylea for eye disease. Its stock has rallied sharply and sits near its 52-week high, and the pharma/biotech sector overall is seeing renewed investor interest right now. The main risk is that after such a fast run-up, the stock could be due for a pause or pullback before it climbs further.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 72% (raw model estimate: 62%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.
What each AI analyst estimated
Mondelez makes well-known snack brands like Oreo and Cadbury. Its share price has climbed steadily over the past month and is outpacing the broader tech-heavy market, a sign of solid investor confidence in a defensive, steady business. The main risk is that this kind of slow-and-steady stock could stall if investor attention rotates back toward riskier, faster-moving names.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 72% (raw model estimate: 66%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.
What each AI analyst estimated
PayPal runs one of the world's largest online payment networks, including Venmo and Braintree. Management just raised its full-year profit guidance and expressed confidence in the company's turnaround, and the stock is still well below its 52-week high despite a recent rally. The main risk is that the stock looks a bit overbought after its run and could pause or pull back in the short term.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 72% (raw model estimate: 68%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.
What each AI analyst estimated
ADP provides payroll and HR outsourcing services to businesses worldwide. It has been climbing steadily and outperforming the broader market, a sign of stable, growing demand for its services. The main risk is that its momentum indicators show early signs of cooling, so the rally may lose some steam.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 72% (raw model estimate: 68%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.
What each AI analyst estimated
Warner Bros. Discovery owns major entertainment brands including HBO, CNN, and Warner Bros. Studios. The stock has risen strongly over the past month and is beating the broader market, likely on optimism about its media and streaming business. The main risk is that the stock now looks a bit overbought and several insiders, including the CEO, have been selling shares.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 72% (raw model estimate: 60%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice. Allocations are scaled to 85% of half-Kelly for the current market regime.
What each AI analyst estimated
This report identifies stocks with an AI-assessed probability of gaining +5% within 30 calendar days (target exit by September 19, 2026). Picks are ranked by how many independent AI agents agreed — more agreement means higher conviction. The guide below tells you exactly how to act on them.
Step-by-Step Action Plan
Position Sizing by Conviction Tier
Size each position according to the coloured border on its pick card. Cap your total exposure across all picks from this report at 25% of your overall trading budget.
| Agents Agreeing | What It Means | Max Allocation Per Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 5/5 | Highest conviction — all five independent analytical checks passed | Up to 10% |
| 4/5 | Very high conviction — four of five independent checks aligned | Up to 8% |
| 3/5 | High conviction — three agents independently agreed | Up to 6% |
| 2/5 | Moderate conviction — two agents independently agreed | Up to 4% |
| 1 Agent | Speculative — solo pick, admitted only at Very High confidence | Up to 2% |
The Three Exit Rules
A plain-English guide to every figure shown on each pick card — what it means, how it is calculated, and what a good or bad value looks like.
Scout scanned 101 NASDAQ 100 constituents and short-listed 24 candidates for deep analysis by the five analysts. Here is what happened to each one.
Checks 30-day price history for every candidate before making any selection. Requires positive period return and positive 5-day momentum as mandatory gates. Ranks picks by proximity to their period high and adjusts probability based on volume. Uses news only to rule out major negative catalysts.
Searches earnings results, analyst upgrades, and revenue trends before checking price data. Requires at least one verifiable fundamental catalyst — earnings beat, analyst upgrade, or revenue acceleration — within the last 60 days. Favours stocks with strong fundamentals trading below recent highs (value entry).
Hunts for specific events within the last 21 days: FDA approvals, major contract wins, product launches, earnings surprises, or significant analyst upgrades. Requires a positive price reaction confirming the market is recognising the catalyst. Also scans for upcoming events that could drive further gains.
Maps the macroeconomic regime (risk-on / risk-off / neutral) and identifies sectors benefiting from current conditions before looking at individual stocks. Only selects stocks from macro-aligned sectors with confirmed sector tailwinds. Adjusts for interest rate sensitivity and geopolitical factors.
Reviews the final picks after all four analysts agree and actively challenges each bull thesis. Searches for bearish technical signals, negative news, insider selling, and elevated short interest that the agreeing agents may have underweighted. Produces evidence-based counter-arguments shown on each pick card.
Pure-quant analyst: no news, no narrative, only numbers. Identifies mean-reversion setups from RSI extremes (<35) with momentum turning, Bollinger squeeze breakouts, and multi-factor quant scores using RSI, MACD, OBV, short interest, and insider transaction data. Counterbalances narrative bias across the four analyst agents.