Friday, August 14, 2026 · Five AI analysts screened this index for stocks with the best shot at gaining +5% within 30 days
Optimistic Calm market · VIX 14.6
Momentum is broad and confirmed across multiple time frames: refiners and integrated energy names, large-cap financials, and a wide swath of industrials/healthcare/tech are posting strong 5-day and 30-day gains while trading within a few percent of their 52-week highs. A softer University of Michigan consumer sentiment print is a mild headwind, but it hasn't dented the sector-wide price action seen in the data.
Which of today's picks to actually take, and at what size, given what you are already holding. Each pick's own Suggested Allocation sizes it in isolation; this table applies the portfolio limits — at most 20 open positions and 60% of the portfolio committed in total. Run with --capital 25000 to see these sizes as order amounts rather than percentages.
| Rank | Stock | Action | Size | Entry → Target | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | FDX | SKIP | — | $339.15 → $356.52 stop $312.69 |
Position cap reached — 63 of 20 slots in use. |
| #2 | EXPD | SKIP | — | $189.64 → $199.48 stop $174.47 |
Position cap reached — 63 of 20 slots in use. |
| #3 | REGN | SKIP | — | $796.56 → $837.71 stop $737.61 |
Position cap reached — 63 of 20 slots in use. |
| #4 | MPC | SKIP | — | $359.12 → $378.28 stop $329.31 |
Position cap reached — 63 of 20 slots in use. |
Already open: BNY (to Aug 15), BNY (to Aug 16), USB (to Aug 16), USB (to Aug 18), USB (to Aug 19), MTB (to Aug 20), STT (to Aug 20), CSX (to Aug 22), WAB (to Aug 22), CSX (to Aug 22), HON (to Aug 22), DGX (to Aug 23) … and 51 more. Symbols you already hold were excluded from this run's candidates rather than re-picked.
Position-sizing guidance only — half-Kelly per pick, bounded by the limits above. Not personal investment advice.
FedEx is one of the world's largest package delivery and logistics companies. Its shares are trending higher and outpacing the market on healthy technical signals. Since FedEx's business is closely tied to consumer and business spending, any signs of a slowing economy are the main risk to watch.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 73% (raw model estimate: 67%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice.
What each AI analyst estimated
Expeditors International arranges global freight shipping and logistics for other companies. Its shares are trending higher on solid technical footing, aided by a strong history of beating earnings expectations. Since the business depends on global trade volumes, any slowdown in shipping activity is the main risk.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 73% (raw model estimate: 67%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice.
What each AI analyst estimated
Regeneron develops and sells prescription medicines, including major eye-disease and immunology drugs. Shares have surged over the past month as healthcare is named among the market's strongest-performing sectors right now. The main risk is that the stock is already quite overbought after such a steep climb, making it vulnerable to a pause or pullback.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 73% (raw model estimate: 63%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice.
What each AI analyst estimated
Marathon Petroleum refines crude oil into gasoline and other fuels. The stock has surged over the past month and sits basically at its 52-week high, right as refiners are being singled out as one of the market's strongest-performing groups. The main risk is that oil and fuel-margin prices can swing quickly on world events, which could stall or reverse the rally.
Why the AI likes it
What could go wrong
Calibrated probability: 73% (raw model estimate: 64%) — adjusted using the accuracy of past resolved picks.
Trade math
Suggested allocation is half-Kelly sizing guidance capped at 10% — not personal investment advice.
What each AI analyst estimated
This report identifies stocks with an AI-assessed probability of gaining +5% within 30 calendar days (target exit by September 13, 2026). Picks are ranked by how many independent AI agents agreed — more agreement means higher conviction. The guide below tells you exactly how to act on them.
Step-by-Step Action Plan
Position Sizing by Conviction Tier
Size each position according to the coloured border on its pick card. Cap your total exposure across all picks from this report at 25% of your overall trading budget.
| Agents Agreeing | What It Means | Max Allocation Per Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 5/5 | Highest conviction — all five independent analytical checks passed | Up to 10% |
| 4/5 | Very high conviction — four of five independent checks aligned | Up to 8% |
| 3/5 | High conviction — three agents independently agreed | Up to 6% |
| 2/5 | Moderate conviction — two agents independently agreed | Up to 4% |
| 1 Agent | Speculative — solo pick, admitted only at Very High confidence | Up to 2% |
The Three Exit Rules
A plain-English guide to every figure shown on each pick card — what it means, how it is calculated, and what a good or bad value looks like.
Scout scanned 503 S&P 500 constituents and short-listed 26 candidates for deep analysis by the five analysts. Here is what happened to each one.
Checks 30-day price history for every candidate before making any selection. Requires positive period return and positive 5-day momentum as mandatory gates. Ranks picks by proximity to their period high and adjusts probability based on volume. Uses news only to rule out major negative catalysts.
Searches earnings results, analyst upgrades, and revenue trends before checking price data. Requires at least one verifiable fundamental catalyst — earnings beat, analyst upgrade, or revenue acceleration — within the last 60 days. Favours stocks with strong fundamentals trading below recent highs (value entry).
Hunts for specific events within the last 21 days: FDA approvals, major contract wins, product launches, earnings surprises, or significant analyst upgrades. Requires a positive price reaction confirming the market is recognising the catalyst. Also scans for upcoming events that could drive further gains.
Maps the macroeconomic regime (risk-on / risk-off / neutral) and identifies sectors benefiting from current conditions before looking at individual stocks. Only selects stocks from macro-aligned sectors with confirmed sector tailwinds. Adjusts for interest rate sensitivity and geopolitical factors.
Reviews the final picks after all four analysts agree and actively challenges each bull thesis. Searches for bearish technical signals, negative news, insider selling, and elevated short interest that the agreeing agents may have underweighted. Produces evidence-based counter-arguments shown on each pick card.
Pure-quant analyst: no news, no narrative, only numbers. Identifies mean-reversion setups from RSI extremes (<35) with momentum turning, Bollinger squeeze breakouts, and multi-factor quant scores using RSI, MACD, OBV, short interest, and insider transaction data. Counterbalances narrative bias across the four analyst agents.